WTI remains under pressure near $69.50 as yesterday’s weak U.S. labor market report added another bearish layer to the oil outlook. Nonfarm Payrolls rose by only 57,000 in June, well below expectations, while prior months were revised lower.
Although unemployment slipped to 4.2%, the decline was driven partly by a smaller labor force, which makes the report less positive for demand sentiment. Softer hiring reduces confidence in U.S. fuel consumption, even as it lowers expectations for further Fed tightening.
Geopolitical premium continues to fade
The bigger driver for crude remains the decline in Middle East risk premium. Oil has eased as traders price in improving U.S.-Iran diplomacy and signs of normalization in Strait of Hormuz traffic. Reports also point to plentiful near-term supply, with WTI trading near the high-$60s while Brent holds around the low-$70s. The market is no longer pricing an immediate supply shock, which keeps rallies limited.
EIA data offers limited support
The latest EIA report showed U.S. refinery inputs at 17.2 million barrels per day for the week ending June 26, up 85,000 barrels per day from the previous week, with refinery utilization at 96.6%. That points to strong seasonal refinery activity, but it has not been enough to reverse bearish sentiment because traders remain focused on supply availability, weaker macro signals and fading geopolitical risk.
Technical picture remains bearish
The 4-hour chart shows WTI locked in a clear downtrend after the breakdown from the $75-77 area. Price is trading below the main moving averages, while each rebound continues to stall before trend resistance. The nearest support is around $68.50-67.50. A break below this area would expose $65.00-66.00. On the upside, WTI needs to reclaim $71.50-72.50 to show that sellers are losing control.
Outlook
WTI may attempt short corrective rebounds after the sharp selloff, but the broader setup remains fragile while price holds below moving averages and geopolitical risk premium keeps fading. Weak U.S. labor data adds demand uncertainty, so a sustained recovery likely requires either stronger inventory draws, renewed supply disruption risk or a clear improvement in global demand expectations, as already was noted in the article WTI extends selloff as oversupply concerns outweigh geopolitical risk.
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