Crude gains as Hormuz blockade fears lift risk premium

Highlights

Brent rose 1.15% to $84.26 on Tuesday.
WTI gained 1.34% to $79.19.
Tanker traffic through Hormuz fell to a two-month low.
UAE said two tankers were hit by Iranian missiles.

Brent futures were recently at $84.26 a barrel, up 1.15%, while WTI rose 1.34% to $79.19, according to the latest market data shown Tuesday. Earlier, both contracts rose by more than $2 a barrel before paring gains, while Brent had jumped 9.6% in the previous session, its biggest daily gain since May 2020, Reuters reported.

Hormuz becomes the key market risk

The latest rally followed a third consecutive night of U.S. strikes against Iran and Washington’s move to reinstate a blockade of Iranian shipping. President Donald Trump also proposed charging a 20% fee to guard traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, though the U.N. shipping agency said it opposed mandatory fees on straits used for international navigation.

Iran has rejected any U.S. role in controlling the waterway. Iranian officials said Tehran would remain the guardian of the strait, while Iranian media reported explosions in several Gulf locations after the latest U.S. strikes.

The market’s focus is now on whether military activity will translate into a real disruption of tanker movements. Shipping data showed the number of tankers passing through Hormuz fell to the lowest level in two months.

Tanker attacks deepen uncertainty

The risk to physical flows increased after the United Arab Emirates said two Emirati tankers were hit by Iranian cruise missiles in Omani territorial waters. One Indian crew member was killed and eight others were wounded, according to the UAE Ministry of Defence.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said it had hit two “offending” supertankers after they allegedly ignored warnings and turned off navigation systems.

Analysts said the next move in oil will depend on whether crude continues to move through the strait. A prolonged reduction in vessel traffic could push prices higher, while steady flows may allow part of the current risk premium to fade.

Energy markets face a chokepoint test

The Strait of Hormuz remains the central risk because even a partial disruption can quickly affect global crude supply, freight costs, and insurance rates. The waterway carries major Gulf energy exports, so traders react sharply when vessel traffic slows or tanker attacks are reported.

For now, the market is not pricing a full closure. But the combination of U.S. strikes, Iranian responses, tanker damage, and lower traffic has made the supply outlook far less predictable. That uncertainty is enough to keep oil near one-month highs.

Earlier, we reported that Hormuz tensions rise after new U.S. and Iran attacks.

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