Silver price forecast: $58.79–$63.61 range in focus as XAG jumps 3.55%

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Silver jumps 3.55% to $61.2 today

Highlights

Silver demand strengthens as weaker US payrolls reduce expectations for Fed rate hikes and lower the opportunity cost of holding the metal.
Broader precious metals gain traction, with gold set for its first weekly advance since May amid softened Fed tightening expectations.
Technical outlook favors consolidation in the $58.79–$63.61 range, with overall bullish momentum but signs of intraday overbought conditions and potential for short-term cooling.

Investor flows rise as softer US jobs data shifts Fed outlook

Investor sentiment toward Silver is being lifted as expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes have declined following weaker-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls data, according to Fxstreet. This shift in rate outlook reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Silver, making it more attractive for investors and driving additional demand. Precious metals broadly are also benefiting from this dynamic, with gold on track for its first weekly gain since May as market participants scale back expectations for imminent Fed tightening, according to CNBC.

Overbought technicals meet intraday pullback as buyers dominate

On the H4 timeframe, XAG is positioned above both its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, while still remaining below the daily 200-period moving average. The Ichimoku Kijun line at $60.03 represents immediate support. Technical indicators show that the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), Average Directional Index (ADX), and Awesome Oscillator all indicate underlying bullish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in buy territory, with the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) and Bull/Bear Power both in overbought conditions, confirming strong buyer dominance intraday. Meanwhile, Stochastic RSI remains neutral. Notably, overbought signals from CCI and Bull/Bear Power contrast with the current pullback to the day's low, suggesting momentum may be cooling near-term.

Sideways bias develops with modest edge for further silver upside

In the short term, XAG/USD is expected to fluctuate within the $58.79 to $63.61 volatility band relative to current levels. With a 52% probability, the scenario of further gains is slightly favored. The baseline case is a period of sideways consolidation within this range. If price sustains a push above immediate resistance, a move toward the upper boundary becomes more likely, while a decisive move below the $60.03 support could open the way for a drop toward the lower end of the forecast band.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, views Silver’s current strength as driven by softer Fed rate expectations and positive investor sentiment. He notes that technical momentum is solid in the short term, but overbought signals and a recent pullback highlight growing near-term risks. Kharitonov remains cautious, favoring range-bound scenarios unless key supports or resistances break decisively. "Until we see a clear move above $63.61 or a loss of $60.03, I expect sideways action to dominate," he says.

Earlier, analysts noted that silver was exhibiting positive momentum, but with underlying caution amid mixed technical readings and broader market uncertainty. The latest market dynamics strengthen this outlook, as easing rate hike expectations fuel renewed buying interest, making a sustained move above $63.61 a potential trigger for upside extension.

Source of Data: XAG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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