Copper price drops over 1% after US tariff hearings on 60 countries

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Copper slides 1.27% today to $6.04

Highlights

The US has initiated hearings on tariffs targeting 60 countries over forced labor, heightening copper market uncertainties.
Risks to global copper flows and cross-border demand are intensifying as trade policy uncertainty dampens the near-term outlook.
Copper trades under key moving averages with bearish momentum, forecast to fluctuate between $5.9562 and $6.136 amid high downside probability.

Trade tensions unsettle copper on tariff risks and supply chain fears

The United States has begun a three-day hearing on its plan to impose tariffs on 60 countries over forced labor, a move that could alter global copper trade flows, according to Bloomberg. This development introduces uncertainty into the copper market as the metal's critical role in industrial supply chains exposes it to the risk of disrupted flows and potential declines in cross-border demand. These trade tensions are increasing market caution and contributing to a weaker outlook for copper in the immediate term.

Bearish momentum prevails as resistance levels cap upside

Technically, HG is capped below the MA-20 at $6.1416 and the MA-50 at $6.1561 on the four-hour chart, with both averages acting as resistance on any rebound attempts. The daily timeframe still shows long-term support above the MA-200 at $5.904. The Ichimoku Kijun level stands at $6.1401, now forming the first barrier for recovery attempts. Momentum remains decisively negative as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 36.77, suggesting weak buying interest, and both the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Awesome Oscillator also signal bearish momentum. The Average Directional Index (ADX) is neutral, indicating trend strength is limited even as the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) and Stochastic RSI show oversold conditions. Intraday signals are dominated by sellers, as confirmed by negative Bull/Bear Power.

Further downside likely amid range trading and resistance tests

For the coming sessions, copper is expected to trade between $5.9562 and $6.136, with high probability of additional downside pressure. The baseline scenario calls for sideways price movement within this volatility band, barring a firm break of immediate resistance. Should HG break and close above $6.1401, a potential bullish reversal becomes possible. Conversely, a decisive move below $5.9562 would open the way for further declines.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees the current copper sell-off as an overreaction to policy uncertainty. He believes tariff risks and weakened technicals may keep the market subdued in the near term, but fundamental demand for copper remains strong given its industrial role. Caution is warranted while U.S. hearings impact market sentiment. However, Karapetjanc expects any resolution or clarity in trade policy to support a rebound. "I think the market is underestimating copper’s macro relevance, and once the tariff clouds clear, price could find solid ground above $6,1401 again."

Earlier, analysts noted that expanded supply from Chile was intensifying downside risks for copper amid persistent bearish technical signals. The latest escalation in US trade tensions deepens market uncertainty and raises the prospect of heightened volatility, making copper particularly sensitive to any decisive move through the $6.1401 resistance or a break below $5.9562 support in the near term.

Source of Data: HG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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