Copper price slides slightly after supply issues from thefts in Canada

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Copper slides 0.22% to $6.18 today

Highlights

Over 800 copper theft incidents in Canada during 2026 have disrupted supply chains, triggering localized shortages and raising operational costs.
These persistent supply-side issues intermittently tighten copper's physical availability, contributing to risk premiums and influencing short-term market pricing.
Copper trades with a bullish technical bias, supported by strong upward momentum, with expected consolidation between $6.0753 and $6.2911 in the near term.

Intermittent shortages rise amid rising copper theft incidents

Copper supply chains have faced ongoing disruptions, as more than 800 incidents of copper theft were reported in Canada over 2026, according to Theglobeandmail. Such thefts can create localized shortages and increase operational costs for infrastructure and utility providers, intermittently tightening physical availability. These supply-side constraints introduce periodic risk premiums into the copper market and factor into short-term trading dynamics.

Bullish bias emerges as MACD diverges from neutral indicators

On the technical front, copper is currently trading above the MA-20 at $6.17 and the MA-50 at $6.15 on the four-hour chart, while also holding above the MA-200 at $5.89 on the daily timeframe. The immediate resistance is defined by the Ichimoku Kijun line at $6.18. Momentum indicators present a mixed but moderately positive picture, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showing a strong buy signal and the Average Directional Index (ADX) remaining neutral. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 53.38 alongside a bullish signal from Stochastic RSI, indicating upward momentum without overbought conditions, while the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) and Awesome Oscillator reflect a neutral stance. Bull/Bear Power points to buyer dominance in the latest intraday session, although volatility has been moderate.

Price consolidation favored as technicals and supply risks converge

Looking ahead to the next 2–3 trading sessions, copper is expected to move within a typical volatility band between $6.07 and $6.29, with a 60% probability favoring upward movement. The baseline expectation involves price consolidating within this range, reflecting the current mix of technical and supply-side factors. A sustained push above immediate resistance could trigger a bullish extension, while a breakdown through the identified support would suggest a reversal and increase the risk of a short-term pullback.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees copper trading in a consolidation phase, with supply chain risks from recent thefts partially offset by technical stability. He notes that momentum indicators lean positive but lack decisive conviction. Kharitonov maintains a cautious outlook until resistance at $6.18 is clearly broken. "Base case remains rangebound — I stay defensive unless copper confirms a break above immediate resistance."

Earlier, analysts noted that copper’s long-term market strength was underpinned by robust electrification demand, despite mixed short-term technical signals and limited immediate catalysts. The addition of persistent supply-side disruptions now reinforces the bullish bias, making the risk of a sharp upside move more acute if immediate resistance at $6.18 is breached in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: HG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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