Copper price gains nearly 2% after US-Iran strikes ease risk premium for metals

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Copper jumps 1.99% as BHP wins permit

Highlights

BHP secured a major environmental permit enabling up to $14.7 billion in copper expansion at Escondida, boosting long-term supply prospects.
Improved project certainty and risk appetite, following US strikes on Iran, are raising sector confidence and supporting copper demand.
Copper demonstrates strong bullish momentum and projects an upside range of $6.1303–$6.2461, with overbought conditions suggesting near-term consolidation risk.

Supply outlook improves as BHP wins Escondida expansion approval

BHP has secured a key environmental permit to unlock up to US$14.7 billion in copper expansion projects at its flagship Escondida mine in Chile, a move that clears the way for substantial increases in long-term supply, according to Thebull Com. The prospect of greater project certainty and forward production growth is shifting medium-term supply expectations and supports greater sector confidence. In parallel, risk assets displayed resilience following additional US strikes on Iran, which improved overall risk appetite and encouraged continued demand for copper, as noted by Bloomberg.

Overbought signals rise as bullish momentum meets technical support

On the hourly chart, HG is trading above the MA-20 at $6.1032 and the MA-50 at $6.1134, while the daily MA-200 provides lower support at $5.9074. Immediate technical support is anchored by the Ichimoku Kijun at $6.1053. Bullish momentum is confirmed by a clear buy signal from the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Average Directional Index (ADX), as well as a reinforcing move from the Awesome Oscillator. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is elevated at 62.56, and both the Stochastic RSI and Commodity Channel Index (CCI) indicate overbought conditions. Bull/Bear Power shows that buyers continue to dominate intraday trading, though several oscillators flag the risk of a short-term pullback from these high levels.

Upside breakout risk grows as consolidation dominates short-term forecasts

In the short term, the expected price range for HG spans $6.1303 to $6.2461, reflecting the prevailing volatility band relative to current levels. A baseline scenario suggests consolidation within this range, with the most probable outcome being continued trading near the upper end. A breakout above $6.2461 would confirm ongoing strength and could open the way for new highs, while a reversal below immediate support at $6.1053 would be the first sign of a potential short-term retracement.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees copper’s advance as supported by confirmed regulatory progress at Escondida and firm investor appetite following subsiding geopolitical risks. He notes that technical momentum is strong, with price holding above key moving averages and multiple indicators confirming bullish conditions, but oscillators signal an overbought market. Kharitonov remains cautious, expecting consolidation near the upper end of the current range unless support at $6.1053 fails. "While fundamentals and sentiment are constructive, I would be wary of chasing highs here — a pullback or range trade looks more likely in the near term."

Earlier, analysts noted that US trade tensions and rising supply from Chile had fostered a bearish outlook for copper amid increased market uncertainty. The recent breakthrough in BHP's Escondida expansion and renewed risk appetite now shift focus to supply-side developments, with traders advised to monitor for a potential breakout above $6.2461 that could signal a new phase of upward momentum.

Source of Data: HG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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