Copper holds steady after copper supply deficit persists

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Copper gains 0.15% to $6.61 today

Highlights

Copper futures set a new high above $14,300 per tonne for August 2026 due to ongoing supply deficits and expectations of new U.S. tariffs.
The U.S. Commerce Department recommends phased tariffs on refined copper imports, starting at 15% in 2027 and rising to 30%, raising import costs and affecting global flows.
Technical indicators show consolidation with mixed momentum signals, forecasting price action between $6.5201 and $6.7155 in the near term.

Record highs sustained as US tariffs tighten supply outlook

Copper futures recently achieved new record highs above $14,300 per tonne in August 2026, a milestone driven by a continued supply deficit and heightened anticipation of new U.S. tariffs on refined copper imports, according to Proactiveinvestors Co. The U.S. Commerce Department’s recommendation for phased universal tariffs starting at 15% in 2027 and rising to 30%, as reported by Cnbc, is expected to raise import costs and potentially shift global trade flows. Together, these factors sustain a tight supply environment and keep price pressures elevated despite modest day-to-day movements.

Support holds as technical signals diverge on momentum

On the technical front, HG has crossed above the MA-20, remains below the MA-50 on the H4 chart, and holds well above the MA-200 on the daily timeframe. The Ichimoku Kijun at $6.605 serves as immediate support. MACD continues to print a Sell signal, while ADX remains Neutral, and RSI and CCI both indicate Sell. Stochastic RSI flashes a Buy, highlighting short-term oversold conditions amid divergence in momentum signals. Bull/Bear Power still shows buyers having a slight advantage in today's subdued volatility environment.

Range-bound trading seen as breakout risk persists

In the near term, copper prices are expected to consolidate within the $6.5201 to $6.7155 range as momentum and oscillator signals remain mixed. With a 53% probability favoring further upside, a breakout above resistance may lead to a bullish scenario, while a drop below the $6.605 support would open room for short-term downside. Overall, the baseline scenario points to range-bound volatility within these levels.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, sees copper well positioned as macro and fundamental forces stay supportive. He notes that robust demand, ongoing supply deficits, and looming U.S. tariffs combine to keep price pressure elevated. While technicals are mixed, the underlying sentiment remains constructive. Karapetjanc believes the consolidation could give way to upside if resistance is cleared. "Supply risks and policy moves set a strong backdrop for copper, and I expect buyers to remain active on dips in this environment."

Earlier, analysts noted that copper was facing near-term downside risks as supply restoration and mixed technical signals contributed to a cautious outlook. With fresh highs now driven by structural supply deficits and looming U.S. tariff policies, traders should monitor potential breakout conditions above current resistance for confirmation of a sustained upward trend.

Source of Data: HG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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