Los Pelambres mine supply returns to market weighs on copper price at $6.585 support

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Copper slips 0.31% to $6.58 today

Highlights

Antofagasta reported first-half 2026 EBITDA up 27%, supported by higher copper prices and production resumption at Los Pelambres.
Supply increased with Los Pelambres restarting operations, and elevated copper prices during the period contributed to stronger profitability.
Copper trades in a range with technical signals mixed; expected price over the next sessions is $6.5389 to $6.6367.

Supply returns and profit gains shift market context post-Antofagasta update

Antofagasta reported a 27% rise in first-half 2026 EBITDA, attributing the improved result to stronger copper prices and the restart of operations at its Los Pelambres mine, according to Directorstalkinterviews. The resumption of production at Los Pelambres suggests an uptick in supply, while higher past copper prices supported company profitability during the period. Together, these developments provide context for recent price action in copper as market participants continue to assess both supply restoration and corporate performance.

Mixed momentum and resistance cap gains despite buyer pressure

On the technical front, HG shows mixed signals across multiple tools. The price resides above the MA-20 and the long-term MA-200 but remains capped by the MA-50 on the hourly chart. The Ichimoku Kijun is set at $6.585, acting as immediate support for intraday moves. Momentum indicators diverge: MACD registers a strong sell, ADX is neutral on trend strength, while RSI points to a selling condition. Stochastic RSI signals overbought, and CCI remains neutral, indicating an overextension in recent buying. Bull/Bear Power provides a strong buy signal, highlighting dominant intraday buyer pressure against this backdrop of mixed oscillators. Yesterday’s trading session saw low volatility and a modest negative gap of -0.0407, keeping prices in the mid-range.

Downside bias dominates near-term as range-bound risks emerge

Over the next two to three sessions, copper is projected to trade in a range between $6.5389 and $6.6367, marking a typical volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of an upward breakout stands at 39%, while a downward move is more likely at 61%, suggesting the base case is for sideways and range-bound action. A breach above resistance would set the stage for further gains, while a drop below immediate support could trigger additional selling pressure.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees recent copper price action as sitting at a key intersection of improving fundamentals and mixed technical momentum. The strong EBITDA from Antofagasta reflects both corporate resilience and the supportive effect of past copper price strength. He believes the restoration of production at Los Pelambres may gradually shift the supply landscape, even as intraday sentiment remains balanced between buyers and sellers. Range-bound conditions dominate the outlook, but improving company data provide a constructive backdrop. "If price consolidates above $6.585 in the next sessions, I expect bullish sentiment to strengthen and upside potential to re-emerge."

Earlier, analysts noted that the widening premium between COMEX and LME copper prices has been a key market signal reflecting tariff expectations and broader supply risks. With Antofagasta’s supply recovery and copper now showing technical signs of potential downside risk, traders should monitor the $6.585 level closely, as a break below this support could accelerate selling momentum in the near term.

Source of Data: HG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.