Will copper price hold $6,598.5 support as persistently low inventories support buyers?

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Copper drops 0.98% today to $6.65

Highlights

Benchmark copper hit a 6-month high of $14,290 a metric ton amid persistently low inventory levels restricting supply.
Lower stockpiles have increased competition among buyers and created upward price pressure, with supply constraints dominating market direction.
Technicals show short-term bearish pressure within a medium-term bullish structure, with $6.5985 to $6.7071 as the expected trading range for the next 2 to 3 days.

Supply-driven sentiment shifts as low inventories counter broader selling

Benchmark copper reached a 6-month high of $14,290 a metric ton as reported by Zawya, driven by persistently low inventory levels. Lower stockpiles restrict available supply, causing greater competition among buyers and creating upward pressure on market prices. This supply constraint remains a key factor influencing sentiment in the copper market, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Mixed technical momentum as buyers face resistance at key levels

Technically, HG is trading below the MA-20 at $6.6674, while staying above the MA-50 at $6.6218 and well above the long-term MA-200 at $6.0772 on the H1 chart. Immediate resistance is seen at the Ichimoku Kijun level of $6.6608. Among momentum indicators, MACD signals a strong buy and ADX also points to ongoing buying interest. RSI stands near 56 and signals a buy, while Stoch RSI is oversold and CCI remains neutral. Bull/Bear Power shows buyers holding control, but the Awesome Oscillator is neutral, suggesting a lack of clear confirmation from all technical indicators. This mixed setup highlights divergent signals and overall uncertainty.

Upside favored as price action tests range-bound consolidation

Over the next 2–3 trading days, copper is expected to consolidate within the $6.5985 to $6.7071 range, representing a typical volatility band relative to current levels. The baseline scenario is sideways movement within this corridor. If price breaks above the $6.6608 resistance, a bullish scenario could unfold with further gains likely. Conversely, a move below $6.5985 support may trigger additional downside pressure. Probability models favor the upside scenario with a 79% chance versus 21% for a downward move.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, notes that copper is struggling to hold ground below key short-term moving averages despite still-positive medium- and long-term technicals. He points out that supply-driven news is supporting sentiment, but price action has failed to confirm bullish signals. The overall indicator mix reflects uncertainty rather than clear momentum. "With copper trapped beneath $6.6608 resistance, I remain cautious and would only look for upside if this level is decisively breached."

Earlier, analysts noted that copper prices faced range-bound trading as supply constraints and the prospect of new U.S. tariffs contributed to a cautiously bullish outlook. With the current technical setup showing mixed momentum signals amid persistent inventory shortages, traders should monitor the $6.6608 resistance level for signs of a potential breakout in the days ahead.

Source of Data: HG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.