Copper price trades near $6.3434 support as oversold conditions limit further selling

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Copper drops 1.02% today to $6.42

Highlights

BHP reported full-year profit growth with copper contributing over half of group profits and declared a four-year high $8.7 billion dividend.
Underlying EBITDA increased 27% to $33 billion, driven by strong copper demand from energy transition and AI infrastructure initiatives.
Copper is trading below short- and medium-term averages with technical indicators showing strong downside pressure and an expected range of $6.3434 to $6.5096.

BHP profit surge and dividend boost as copper earnings rise

BHP reported a sharp increase in full-year profit, with copper exceeding half of group profits for the first time, according to Investing.com. The company declared its highest dividend in four years at $8.7 billion, a result of strong copper earnings that also enabled a reduction of net debt below its target range. BHP's underlying EBITDA rose 27% year over year to $33 billion, supported by nearly 60% margins and a return on capital employed of 26%. The company also cited robust copper demand linked to energy transition initiatives and growing infrastructure for data centers and AI, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Bearish signals dominate amid oversold momentum and key resistance

On the H1 chart, HG is trading below the MA-20 at $6.4576 and the MA-50 at $6.5392, while holding above the long-term MA-200 support at $6.0851. Immediate resistance aligns with the Ichimoku Kijun level at $6.47. Momentum indicators reinforce recent weakness: MACD signals Strong Sell, ADX shows persistent selling, and RSI sits deeply oversold at 33, corroborated by Stoch RSI and CCI oversold readings. Bull/Bear Power confirms sellers' dominance and AO supports a downside bias, as price holds near today's low range amid moderate volatility.

Downside extension likely as range holds and reversal prospects fade

In the short term, Copper is expected to trade between $6.3434 and $6.5096 over the next 2–3 sessions. The probability of further downside is very high, with limited prospects of a reversal in the immediate horizon. The baseline scenario anticipates price stabilizing within this recent band, while a move above the $6.47 resistance is required to trigger a bullish scenario. On the downside, a break below the $6.3434 support could lead to additional selling within the typical volatility band for the current environment.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees BHP’s latest earnings as a strong signal of copper’s growing strategic value across sectors. He believes sector fundamentals remain robust, supported by record-level dividends and strengthened balance sheets, even as technical momentum stays negative in the short term. Despite recent price weakness, the analyst views long-term copper demand themes as intact. "Copper’s role in the global energy shift and digital infrastructure leaves me constructive on the medium-term outlook, but near-term downside risk remains until key resistance levels are reclaimed."

Earlier, analysts noted that copper was exhibiting sustained bearish momentum amid heightened volatility and tight supply conditions. The current price structure and technical signals reinforce this negative bias, with traders advised to monitor the $6.3434 support as a critical downside risk in the sessions ahead.

Source of Data: HG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.