Copper trades down as sellers keep pressure below $6.62 resistance

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Copper drops 1.32% today to $6.52

Highlights

Copper faces an acute squeeze in near-term supply, with LME price spreads showing tight physical market conditions.
Speculative flows have increased due to supply constraints, though broader price action remains under selling pressure.
Copper trades below key short- and medium-term moving averages, with bearish momentum dominating and a projected range of $6.4187 to $6.6387.

Speculative flows accelerate as tight supply triggers volatility

Copper experienced an increasingly acute squeeze in near-term supply, as soaring price spreads on the London Metal Exchange highlighted tight market conditions, according to Bloomberg. This supply constraint has created volatility and drawn speculative flows into the copper market. The heightened tension in immediate deliveries demonstrates ongoing stress in the underlying physical market, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Bearish momentum confirmed as resistance and oversold signals align

On the H4 chart, HG is trading below both the MA-20 at $6.6091 and the MA-50 at $6.6281, while holding above the daily MA-200 at $6.0821. Immediate resistance aligns at $6.62, matching the Ichimoku Kijun on H4. Momentum signals remain negative: RSI reads 42.93, with MACD and Stochastic RSI both flashing bearish and oversold conditions. CCI is oversold, Bull/Bear Power confirms intraday seller dominance, and ADX and Awesome Oscillator both indicate a neutral strength and lack of clear reversal, reinforcing the prevailing bearish momentum.

Bearish bias dominates as rebound odds shrink on technical barriers

Over the short term, price action is expected to consolidate within the $6.4187 to $6.6387 range, consistent with typical volatility bands at current levels. The probability of a rebound remains moderate at 33%, with further downside more likely at 67%. A breakout above $6.62 would be necessary for bullish continuation, while a clear bearish scenario unfolds if $6.4187 is breached to the downside.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, notes that copper is under broad selling pressure despite a fundamental supply squeeze. He sees the tightness in near-term supply as a driver for volatility and speculative activity. Technical momentum is clearly negative, with key resistance at $6.62 and continued selling below short-term averages. Karapetjanc believes that further downside remains the base case unless $6.62 is reclaimed. "A sustained rebound will require both improved sentiment and a decisive break above $6.62."

In a recent review, it was noted that Kalshi expanded its derivatives offerings with a filing for copper perpetual futures alongside broad equity products. The current technical setup indicates sustained bearish momentum in copper, so traders should closely monitor for a decisive move below the $6.4187 threshold as it could signal a renewed downside risk.

Source of Data: HG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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