-0.57% for Copper as Commerzbank highlights mining supply risks

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Copper dips 0.57% today to $6.45

Highlights

Commerzbank warns of serious copper supply risks due to operational and geopolitical uncertainties in key mining regions.
Disruptions threaten to tighten copper supplies and introduce instability throughout the copper supply chain.
Copper trades below key short- and medium-term averages with strong intraday selling, set to remain within $6.2894 to $6.6216 as downside risk dominates.

Supply chain risks intensify on mining challenges despite subdued trading

Commerzbank has warned of significant supply risks for copper, pointing to operational and geopolitical challenges in major mining regions that could affect market stability, according to Bitcoinworld Co. Such disruptions have the potential to tighten supply and cause uncertainties across the copper supply chain. These concerns have become increasingly relevant for market participants though recent trading has shown only modest movement.

Bearish momentum prevails as price hovers near support thresholds

On the technical front, HG remains beneath its SMA-20 and SMA-50 on the H4 chart while price stays above the SMA-200, maintaining support from long-term trend followers. The Ichimoku Kijun currently provides resistance at $6.555, positioning this as a key trigger level for any upside response. Momentum indicators present a dominant bearish theme: MACD signals ongoing sell bias, while ADX reads neutral, suggesting limited trend strength. Multiple oscillators, including RSI, Stochastic RSI, and CCI, all point to oversold conditions, indicating short-term exhaustion in downward price action. However, Bull/Bear Power confirms sellers maintain intraday control, with the Awesome Oscillator in agreement with the prevailing downside momentum.

Further downside risk rises as upside breakout remains unlikely

In the coming sessions, copper is expected to trade within a range between $6.2894 and $6.6216, reflecting typical volatility relative to current levels. The probability of a rally is rated as very low, with the risk of further downside remaining elevated; rebounds are, therefore, less likely in the immediate term. The baseline forecast sees price stabilizing and moving sideways within this corridor. A decisive bullish shift would require a break above the $6.555 resistance, while a move below $6.2894 would reinforce the downward trend.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, notes that copper is trading under key short- and medium-term moving averages, with sellers maintaining control. He sees Commerzbank’s warning about supply risks as an important factor, but does not expect these concerns to drive a sharp near-term move. The technical picture suggests sideways or lower action unless $6.555 is reclaimed. "Without a break above resistance, I remain defensive on copper — further downside risk persists while supply threats have yet to spark meaningful buying."

Earlier, analysts noted that copper was experiencing sustained bearish momentum with traders advised to monitor critical support levels for downside risk. The current article reinforces this outlook by highlighting heightened supply risks and persistent technical weakness, with traders watching the $6.555 resistance as a potential catalyst for any shift in direction.

Source of Data: HG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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