Silver jumps as US Treasury buyback program lowers real yields

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Silver jumps 2.65% today to $69.9

Highlights

Silver demand has risen due to a new US Treasury program to buy back long-term government debt, pushing real yields lower.
Precious metals, including silver, have become more attractive as lower real yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
Silver trades at $69.9 with a 2.65% gain today; strong momentum and overbought indicators suggest consolidation between $67.03 and $72.77 over the next two to three days.

US debt buyback spurs real yield drop and silver demand

The rally in silver is primarily driven by a new US Treasury program to buy back its own long-term debt, as reported by Riotimesonline. This move has pushed US real yields lower, which in turn increases the appeal of non-yielding assets such as precious metals. The resulting increase in demand for silver is reflected in today's active trading environment.

Momentum persists as price stays capped by long-term resistance

On the H4 chart, XAG has established itself above the MA-20 and MA-50 but continues to trade beneath the MA-200 at $74.52, highlighting a major resistance level for the longer-term trend. Immediate technical support is defined by the Ichimoku Kijun at $65.99. Momentum indicators show persistent strength: MACD and ADX remain on buy signals, while overbought conditions are signaled by RSI at 71.68, Stoch RSI, CCI, and Bull/Bear Power. Bull/Bear Power also confirms buyers continue to dominate intraday momentum, and the Awesome Oscillator supports the prevailing bullish bias.

Upside favored as breakout and support levels define risk

For the next two to three sessions, the expected price range for XAG is $67.03 to $72.77, representing a typical volatility band relative to current levels. There is a 79% probability of prices trending higher within this corridor, while a downward move is less likely at 21%. Breakout above $72.77 would open the way for further gains, though resistance could limit the advance. Should silver drop below immediate support at $65.99, further downside risks would emerge.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, believes the US Treasury's debt buyback program is fueling short-term demand for silver but notes the longer-term technical resistance remains dominant. He sees momentum indicators leaning bullish, yet warns that the overbought setup and unbroken $74.52 resistance require caution. The base case is continued range trading between $67.03 and $72.77 unless a decisive breakout or breakdown occurs. "Until silver breaks above the $74.52 barrier, I remain guarded — rallies may fade if immediate support fails."

Earlier, analysts noted that while silver was benefiting from supportive Treasury policies, it continued to face resistance from broader selling pressure and longer-term technical obstacles. The current advance above key short- and medium-term averages—driven by expanded Treasury interventions—strengthens the bullish scenario, with market participants advised to monitor the $72.77 resistance for signs of a further breakout.

Source of Data: XAG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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