+1.57% for Copper as US tariff anticipation drives inventory adjustments

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Copper jumps 1.57% today to $6.57

Highlights

Copper prices are supported by US Treasury intervention easing liquidity constraints and sustaining demand for industrial metals.
Inventory adjustments and a weaker US dollar related to planned US tariff changes are improving copper trading conditions.
Copper is projected to trade between $6.4042 and $6.7364 in coming sessions, with technicals showing long-term bullish structure but short-term overbought risks.

US policy shifts and inventory moves bolster copper demand

Copper prices are responding to recent intervention by the US Treasury to manage borrowing costs, which has helped ease liquidity constraints and underpinned demand for industrial metals, according to Theedgemalaysia. A weaker US dollar, combined with recent adjustments in copper inventories related to anticipated tariff changes in the US, is contributing to improved trading conditions, as Brecorder reported. These factors are collectively supporting market sentiment and promoting steady interest among traders in the copper futures market.

Overbought signals cap bullish bias amid neutral momentum

On the daily chart, the price remains above the 20-period moving average at $6.5703, sits just below the 50-period moving average, and holds well above the 200-period mark. Immediate support is seen at the Ichimoku Kijun level of $6.555. Momentum indicators present a mixed view: while MACD stays neutral and ADX suggests ongoing selling pressure, RSI is bullish at 61.25. Both Stoch RSI and CCI readings are overbought, indicating possible short-term overheating, but Bull/Bear Power signals intraday buyer dominance.

Range-bound outlook anchors on volatility and breakout risks

In the short term, copper is likely to trade in a range between $6.4042 and $6.7364, with a 71% probability assigned to further gains based on current volatility and momentum. The baseline scenario anticipates sideways oscillation within this corridor. Should price break decisively above resistance, additional upside momentum could be triggered; however, a firm drop below support would set the stage for renewed selling pressure within the volatility band.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees copper prices supported by recent policy interventions and improved liquidity. He notes that technical signals are mixed, with momentum showing short-term bullishness but also signs of overheating. The analyst remains cautious, emphasizing the risk of renewed selling should support break. "My view: as long as $6.555 holds, I expect sideways movement, but any firm loss of this level puts the bulls on the defensive."

Earlier, analysts noted that copper was exhibiting notable sector leadership and technical strength as it consolidated near its highs, with major producer earnings benefitting from the rally. The current market context adds a macroeconomic dimension, with US Treasury actions and shifting inventory policies influencing copper’s range-bound behavior; traders should now focus on whether copper can sustain its position above $6.555 support to gauge the next directional move.

Source of Data: HG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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