Silver price forecast: $66.31 support in focus as XAG drops 1.43%

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Silver drops 1.43% today to $67.98

Highlights

The US has announced new broad economic sanctions against Iran, raising uncertainty about future Iranian silver exports.
Expanded sanctions could disrupt global industrial metals supply chains and increase volatility in silver markets.
Silver trades in a sideways range of $64.65 to $71.31, with momentum indicators mixed and short-term weakness prevailing.

Expanded US sanctions on Iran raise volatility via supply chain risk

The Trump administration has announced unprecedented economic sanctions targeting Iran, a move that broadens US sanctions enforcement across multiple fronts, according to Mondaq. Such actions have the potential to disrupt Iranian silver exports, affecting global supply chains and creating uncertainty for industrial metals markets. The expansion of sanctions influences market sentiment and adds to volatility as participants assess downstream effects on silver availability.

Mixed technical momentum as XAG holds key supports under trend pressure

On the H4 timeframe, XAG closed below its MA-20 but above the MA-50. On the daily chart, the price remains below the MA-200 level. Key Ichimoku Kijun support holds at $66.31. For momentum, MACD shows a Strong Buy and ADX signals Buy, whereas RSI reads neutral at 50.17. Both Stoch RSI and Bull/Bear Power indicate oversold conditions with sellers in control. CCI and the Awesome Oscillator both remain neutral, providing little directional clarity.

Range-bound outlook as bullish breakout faces resistance risk

For the coming days, XAG is expected to trade between $64.65 and $71.31, representing a typical volatility band relative to recent ranges. The probability of an upward move within this corridor stands at 70%, while a downward scenario has a lower chance at 30%. Baseline expectations suggest price will remain mostly sideways in this range, with a bullish scenario involving a breakout above the upper boundary and a bearish scenario unfolding if price dips below immediate support.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees the weight of new US sanctions on Iran as a destabilizing factor for global silver markets. He notes that technical signals are conflicted, with momentum mixed and sentiment uncertain. Sideways movement is likely with bearish risks if support fails. "Until silver decisively moves above $71.31, I remain defensive and see no clear upside catalyst for now."

Earlier, analysts noted that silver was supported by safe-haven flows amid US fiscal concerns, with technical signals suggesting consolidation or an upward breakout was likely. The latest developments around expanded US sanctions on Iran introduce a new supply risk, positioning market participants to watch for volatility and potential trend shifts as silver trades between $64.65 and $71.31 in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: XAG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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