Is silver regaining safe-haven status amid rising geopolitical risks?
Silver is holding near key support at $67.70 after pulling back from the 200-day SMA. Rising geopolitical tensions are reviving safe-haven demand, although elevated bond yields continue to limit the upside.
The futures market is showing a recovery in speculative interest in silver. Managed money increased its net long position to 14,073 contracts, adding 2,378 contracts over the week. Total open interest stood at around 113,800 contracts.
Renewed escalation between the U.S. and Iran is providing additional support for precious metals. Brent climbed above $91 on August 31 following new U.S. strikes and retaliatory actions by Iran, increasing demand for safe-haven assets. Silver is gradually regaining a safe-haven premium while retaining the support of its industrial demand component.
More hawkish expectations for the Fed remain a limiting factor. Higher Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding metals, meaning geopolitical demand is still facing pressure from the macroeconomic backdrop.
Holding $67.70 keeps a retest of $72 in play
After testing the 200-day SMA near $72, silver entered a correction and stabilized around $67.70, where horizontal support converges with an ascending trend line.
This level becomes the key reference point for the next several trading sessions. A decisive break and sustained move below $67.70 would weaken the technical structure and open the way toward $63.73, an important support area near the July 6 local high.
However, with geopolitical risks intensifying, the base case remains for $67.70 to hold, followed by another attempt to test the 200-day SMA near $72.
If silver approaches $72, the RSI (14) would likely move back into overbought territory. This could limit momentum and increase the probability of profit-taking near the long-term moving average.
Falling Gold/Silver ratio highlights silver strength
Silver is gradually regaining its role as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical instability, while also noticeably outperforming gold in August. Over the past month, silver has gained around 11.8%, compared with roughly 7.9% for gold.
This relative strength is also reflected in the gold/silver ratio, which has fallen by more than 6% over the past month. A declining ratio indicates that silver has been outperforming gold over this period.
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