Platinum climbs over 3% as ETF outflows and slowing jewelry demand impact supply-demand balance

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Platinum surges 3.08% today to $1894

Highlights

Platinum is projected to move into surplus in 2026 after three years of deficits, with a surplus of 548,000 ounces reported in the first half.
Significant investor selling and reduced platinum jewelry demand in China drove ETF outflows and weakened demand fundamentals.
Platinum trades with strong short-term upward momentum and is expected to consolidate between $1,848 to $1,940 over the next five trading days.

ETF outflows and Chinese demand drive shift to 2026 surplus

The platinum market is expected to swing into surplus in 2026 following three years of deficits, mainly attributable to significant investor selling and weaker demand for platinum jewelry in China, according to the World Platinum Investment Council. Heavy exchange-traded fund outflows drove a surplus of 548,000 ounces in the first half of 2026, and a 244,000 ounce surplus was reported in the second quarter. ETF-related selling is projected to ease later in the year, potentially returning the market to a deficit, even as current inventories remain critically depleted.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees the recent 3.08% surge in platinum as a short-lived reaction to the World Platinum Investment Council's revised surplus forecast for 2026. He highlights that the market faces ongoing risks from investor selling and sluggish Chinese jewelry demand, with technical resistance at the 200-day moving average remaining formidable. Kharitonov views the medium- and long-term technical outlook as bearish, citing limited upside unless the $1,908 ceiling is breached. In his view, momentum signals are mixed, and ETF outflows continue to weigh on sentiment. "Given the looming surplus and persistent outflows, I remain cautious on platinum as upside potential appears capped for now," Kharitonov concludes.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, interprets the platinum market's resilience above key moving averages as a sign of underlying strength. He points to expectations that ETF-related selling will ease and inventories are already severely depleted, laying a foundation for potential reversal to deficit sooner than the market anticipates. Karapetjanc remains confident that the bullish structure remains intact, especially if resistance at $1,908 breaks. "With supply risks and reduced ETF outflows ahead, I expect further growth and see attractive setups for active traders," he asserts.

Parshwa Turakhiya, analyst, observes that platinum’s short-term momentum is positive, with price action holding above both the 20- and 50-day moving averages. However, sentiment appears divided as technical signals like RSI and ADX point to moderation, and a defined range between $1,848 and $1,940 offers both upside and downside setups. Turakhiya notes that ETF flows play a key role in driving intraday sentiment. "Traders should watch for a break from the $1,908 resistance for a quick move higher or a drop below $1,865 for a reversal," he advises.

Short-term upside gains capped as technicals turn mixed

Platinum is currently trading above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages ($1,818 and $1,728), but remains below the 200-day moving average at $1,908. This structure points to short- and medium-term upward momentum, while longer-term technicals remain challenging, with a bearish medium-/long-term alignment. Immediate resistance stands at the $1,908 near-term ceiling, and the nearest support is at $1,865. Momentum indicators present a mixed outlook: MACD signals a strong buy, ADX is neutral, and RSI is neutral but leans buy, with CCI and Stochastic RSI both neutral. Bull/Bear Power (BBP) at 42.15 is positive, highlighting intraday buying dominance and overbought conditions, further supported by the Awesome Oscillator.

Earlier, analysts noted that platinum was trading within a broadly bearish technical structure amid mixed momentum signals and market indecision. The current analysis strengthens this view by underscoring that, despite signs of short-term momentum, traders should watch for potential shifts at the $1,908 resistance level, which could define the next directional move.

Source of Data: XPT Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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