Philippine coffee sector faces output decline as heat threatens 2026 crop

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Philippine coffee output decline

Highlights

Philippine Coffee Board projects domestic coffee production to drop below 30,000 metric tons in 2026 due to rising temperatures and climate pressures.
Green coffee bean output rose 11.5% to 35,650 metric tons in 2025, but Super El Niño and heat threaten to reverse gains by 2026.
With annual coffee demand at 150,000-200,000 metric tons and imports covering 81%, local farmers supply only 15% of demand, increasing downside commercial risk.

Climate pressure reshapes production outlook

As reported by BusinessWorld, citing the Philippine Coffee Board, Inc., domestic coffee production is projected to fall below 30,000 metric tons in 2026 as higher temperatures affect farming regions nationwide. PCBI Chairman Pacita "Chit" Juan said the pace of climate change is forcing growers to shift cultivation to higher elevations, especially for Arabica.

Juan said coffee once grown in lower areas now needs to be planted higher because temperatures have risen globally. She added that Arabica now requires elevations of about 1,800 to 2,000 meters above sea level, compared with lower-altitude conditions that were previously viable.

Data from the local statistics agency showed green coffee bean output reached 35,650 metric tons in 2025, up 11.5% from 31,980 metric tons a year earlier. Even so, the industry now expects weather pressures, including the looming effects of Super El Niño, to reverse that gain in 2026.

Import dependence keeps pressure on growers

The industry is urging farmers to expand climate-resistant varieties such as Liberica, Excelsa and Robusta to help preserve production. Juan said these varieties can still grow in lower-lying areas, with some suitable for elevations of 200 to 300 meters, and could also be planted in areas where Arabica is currently grown.

The Philippines' annual coffee demand is estimated at 150,000 to 200,000 metric tons, with imports covering about 81% of requirements. The industry's roadmap shows local farmers supply only 15% of overall demand, highlighting the commercial risk of further domestic production declines.

Mindanao accounts for 83.63% of local coffee production, while Luzon and the Visayas contribute 9.18% and 7.2%, respectively. In 2025, Robusta made up 76.5% of output at 27,272 metric tons, followed by Arabica at 16.7% or 5,953 metric tons, while Excelsa and Liberica accounted for 2,032 metric tons and 392 metric tons.

In our earlier report on UPS’s new Clark international air hub in Pampanga, we covered how the company’s $80 million facility significantly boosts parcel-handling capacity and speeds up delivery times across Asia-Pacific routes. We also noted the hub’s automated sorting and temperature-controlled units, positioning Clark to support export- and import-reliant industries as the Philippine logistics market expands.

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