Copper trades flat as price holds above short- and long-term averages

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Copper slips 0.08% to $6.6475 today

Highlights

Copper hovered near a two-week high as traders waited for the Federal Reserve interest rate decision and clearer macroeconomic signals.
Trading activity in copper remained subdued, with reduced short-term volatility and limited conviction in either direction ahead of the Fed meeting.
Copper trades in a bullish structure with price projected between $6.5152 to $6.7798 over the next few days, and a 77% probability of an upward move.

Cautious positioning curbs volatility ahead of Fed policy decision

Copper traded near its highest close in two weeks as market participants positioned cautiously ahead of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision, according to Bloomberg. The anticipation of possible changes in U.S. monetary policy limited conviction on either side of the market, as traders awaited greater clarity on the macroeconomic outlook. This environment contributed to subdued trading activity and narrowed short-term volatility, with attention focused on the Fed's policy trajectory.

Bullish momentum persists as technicals confirm support zones

On the working timeframe, HG remains above the MA-20 and MA-50, with the MA-200 on the daily chart providing additional trend support. The Ichimoku Kijun at $6.5202 marks a key support zone. MACD, ADX, CCI, RSI, and Bull/Bear Power all reflect ongoing bullish momentum, indicating buyers have maintained control intraday, though Stoch RSI shows overbought conditions and the Awesome Oscillator is neutral, signaling a lack of further upside conviction.

Upside breakout probabilities rise as trading remains range-bound

Over the short term, copper prices are expected to fluctuate between $6.5152 and $6.7798, reflecting the established volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of an upside move outpaces downside risk at 77% to 23%. The baseline scenario sees range-bound trading; however, a breakout above resistance would open the door to renewed bullish momentum, while a loss of support at the Kijun would favor a pullback.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees copper trading in a consolidation phase as market participants await the Federal Reserve’s decision. He notes that technical indicators show continued bullish control intraday, but overbought signals and subdued price action call for caution. The base case is a range-bound move between $6.5152 and $6.7798 unless support at the Kijun is lost. "I remain defensively neutral here — not committing to an upside view until the Fed provides more clarity and we see follow-through in price," Kharitonov says.

Previously it was reported that copper's price stability was underpinned by robust demand signals and a tightly contained trading range. The current setup reinforces this outlook, with narrow volatility bands and ongoing bullish momentum highlighting the importance of monitoring the $6.5202 Kijun support and watching for a potential breakout above resistance in the sessions ahead.

Source of Data: HG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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