China farm imports test U.S. $17 billion trade pledge

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China U.S. farm trade test

Highlights

China's non-soybean U.S. agricultural imports reached $7.2 billion from January to September, the lowest since 2019 and far from the prorated $17 billion annual target agreed in May.
U.S. corn and sorghum face increased competition in China from domestic supplies and Brazilian exports, with Brazilian sorghum shipments to China totaling 1.7 million metric tons so far in 2024.
Chinese demand for U.S. pork, chicken, and beef remains weak due to domestic oversupply and high prices, indicating China may need state intervention to meet its $17 billion import pledge.

Import pace trails target after May agreement

As reported by Reuters, China bought $7.2 billion worth of U.S. agricultural goods other than soybeans between January and September, based on an analysis of customs data, leaving non-soy purchases at their lowest level for the period since 2019. In May, the White House said Beijing agreed to buy $17 billion of U.S. agricultural goods annually from 2026, with this year's goal prorated, in addition to a soybean buying commitment made in October last year.

Whether China is already falling short of that commitment remains unclear because the White House has not said if the timeline began in May or only starts after proposed Chinese tariff cuts are finalized. Still, the slow pace adds to doubts that imports can accelerate enough this year to satisfy U.S. farmers, who are also dealing with high fuel prices ahead of Tuesday's midterm elections.

Tim Lust, chief executive of National Sorghum Producers, said growers want broader grain trade to resume, noting that soybeans are moving while other commodities are not. The U.S. Department of Agriculture referred questions on the prorating schedule to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, while the USTR, the White House and China's Ministry of Commerce did not respond to requests for comment.

Competition and weak demand curb broader farm trade

Analysts say the target will be difficult to reach even if buying improves, unless Beijing directs state-owned buyers to step in more aggressively. In corn, Chinese imports from the U.S. face pressure from ample domestic supply, and COFCO Futures said last month that U.S. corn is not competitive, forecasting about 900,000 tons of U.S. corn imports for the 2026/27 marketing year.

U.S. sorghum is also facing stronger competition from Brazil, which gained access to the Chinese market in September 2025. Brazil has shipped 1.7 million metric tons to China so far this year, with nearly 1 million more tons planned, according to Eduardo Vanin, senior agriculture strategist at Marex, while U.S. sorghum sales to China have dried up over the past four months after earlier improvement.

Chinese imports of U.S. meat are running into similar limits. Pork and chicken are oversupplied domestically, U.S. beef prices remain high because herds have declined, and beef exports still face regulatory barriers even after China renewed export licenses in May for more than 400 U.S. beef plants. Analysts said those constraints mean Beijing will probably need to rely on state buyers, as it is already doing with soybeans, if it wants to meet the $17 billion target.

In our earlier article on the surge in crude oil shipping costs, we examined how conflict-related risks on key tanker routes pushed freight and insurance rates sharply higher, making transport a much larger share of the delivered oil price. We also noted that the spillover from pricier, less predictable logistics can feed into broader inflation pressures and encourage buyers and companies to rethink routes and supply chains to reduce exposure to chokepoints.

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