JPMorgan says global oil market returns to surplus as exports recover and demand weakens

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Olga Shendetskaya

04.11.2026

JPMorgan says global oil market returns to surplus as exports recover and demand weakens — Oil surplus returns globally

After months of disruption tied to conflict in the Middle East, the global oil market is moving back into surplus as supply outpaces consumption. JPMorgan says recovering regional exports and softer global demand are combining to rebuild excess crude volumes in international markets.

Highlights

JPMorgan estimates the global oil market surplus reached 1.1 million barrels per day in September and widened to 1.4 million barrels per day in October.
Global crude imports climbed to 44.9 million barrels per day in October, up 1.3 million barrels per day year-over-year, with Middle Eastern exports rebounding to 20.7 million barrels per day.
Rising production outside the Middle East, led by Latin America with 1.5 million barrels per day more supply, and a 3.3 million barrels per day global demand drop, reinforce oversupply pressures.

Supply recovery and demand slowdown reshape balances

As reported by Reuters, citing JPMorgan, the bank estimates the global oil market returned to a surplus of 1.1 million barrels per day in September, with that excess widening to 1.4 million barrels per day in October. That nearly matches last year's average surplus of 1.3 million barrels per day.

The bank says inventories and trade flows both point to more excess barrels returning to the market. Global crude imports rise to 44.9 million barrels per day in October, up 1.3 million barrels per day from a year earlier.

A central driver of the shift is the recovery in Middle Eastern oil exports, which rebound to about 20.7 million barrels per day from a low of 9.8 million barrels per day in March. Even so, export volumes remain below pre-war levels.

Broader regional output adds to market pressure

Higher production outside the Middle East is also adding to the surplus, with JPMorgan estimating that Latin America alone is supplying about 1.5 million barrels per day more crude than a year earlier. Brazil, Venezuela, Guyana and Argentina are leading that increase.

At the same time, the bank says global demand has fallen by an estimated 3.3 million barrels per day since the start of the conflict. High fuel prices and supply disruptions are curbing consumption, reinforcing the shift toward oversupply in the global oil market.

Our earlier article on the WTO’s outlook for Middle East trade explained how wars and repeated disruptions are forcing companies to redesign supply chains and shipping routes, often opting for costlier but more resilient alternatives. It also highlighted the WTO’s expectation of a sharp decline in the region’s exports and imports in 2024, underscoring that any recovery in trade flows could take time even if conditions stabilize.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.

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