Brent crude price forecast: $86.17 support as XBR drops 5.07%

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Brent crude drops 5.07% to $93.37

Highlights

Brent crude saw its sharpest weekly dollar decline on record as the risk premium from recent geopolitical tensions was nearly eliminated.
The rapid unwinding of risk-driven positions led to increased selling pressure and the latest drop in Brent crude prices.
Brent trades below key moving averages with technical signals predominantly bearish and an expected price range of $86.17 to $100.57 over the next several days.

Largest weekly drop as geopolitical risk premium unwinds

Brent crude experienced its largest one-week decline in dollar terms on record, as the risk premium fueled by recent geopolitical tensions was almost entirely erased, according to Europesays. The removal of this premium reflects a shift in market sentiment, as participants rapidly unwound positions tied to heightened geopolitical risk. This repricing has intensified selling pressure, contributing to the commodity's latest downward move.

Bearish momentum persists as technical support levels break

On the H4 chart, XBR trades below the MA-20 and MA-50, while also positioned under the daily MA-200, marking a conspicuous breakdown of short-, medium-, and long-term technical support levels. Immediate resistance is established at the Ichimoku Kijun line of $96.75. Momentum indicators continue to show a bearish setup, with both MACD and ADX remaining on Sell signals, while the Awesome Oscillator also confirms the prevailing downside momentum. Bull/Bear Power stands at -1.27, supporting seller dominance intraday. Oscillators present a mixed view: RSI remains in the neutral zone, but both Stoch RSI and CCI are deeply oversold, indicating some short-term exhaustion among sellers but not a confirmed buying reversal.

Continued consolidation expected amid persistent bearish pressure

In the near term, Brent is expected to fluctuate between $86.17 and $100.57, defining the likely volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of an upward breakout is very low unless prices decisively overcome immediate resistance near $96.75. Conversely, any sustained move below support could quickly open the way toward the lower boundary of the forecast range. The baseline scenario favors continued sideways consolidation within this channel, reflecting persistent bearish momentum with limited prospects for a durable rebound.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees strong bearish momentum in Brent crude after its sharpest weekly dollar decline on record. Technical signals show no sign of reversal, with prices firmly below all key moving averages and downside momentum confirmed by indicators. He views current sentiment as risk-off, especially with the geopolitical premium now erased. "Until Brent reclaims resistance at $96.75, I remain defensive and expect further consolidation or downside."

Previously it was reported that Brent crude remained under persistent bearish pressure as volatility and shifting geopolitical dynamics drove prices lower. The latest sharp decline and technical breakdown reinforce that scenario, with traders now closely watching for any move below $86.17 as a potential trigger for increased downside risk.

Source of Data: XBR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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