Copper price forecast: $6.13 support as HG drops 1.37%

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Copper slides 1.37% to $6.2575 today

Highlights

China has extended the suspension of its 24% additional tariff on U.S. copper for two months but maintains a 10% duty, limiting a full rebound in demand.
Yangshan and Shanghai copper premiums have surged to record levels in two weeks, showing acute short-term supply tightness from shrinking deliverable stocks in China.
Copper trades below key moving averages with bearish momentum signals, forecast to range between $6.1307 and $6.3843 with high odds of further downside.

Chinese tariff extension and supply squeeze drive market tightness

China has extended its suspension of a 24% additional tariff on U.S. copper imports for another two months, although it continues to impose an existing 10% duty, according to Bloomberg. This decision supports ongoing U.S.-China copper trade, but the standing duty still dampens prospects for a full demand rebound and keeps restrictions in place for exporters. Meanwhile, Mining reported that the Yangshan premium surged to a record $230 a tonne and Shanghai spot copper premiums have tripled in two weeks, both pointing to intense short-term supply constraints driven by shrinking deliverable stocks in China. These developments highlight immediate physical tightness in the Chinese copper market, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Bearish momentum persists with resistance at $6.33 and sell signals

HG is trading below both the MA-20 and MA-50 on the four-hour chart and remains under the daily MA-200. The $6.33 level at the Ichimoku Kijun serves as immediate resistance, while support is outlined at $6.1307. MACD is on Strong Sell and the ADX confirms a Sell bias, while RSI, Stoch RSI, and CCI are all in neutral territory. Bull/Bear Power is slightly negative, indicating sellers maintain a marginal edge in intraday momentum.

Downside risk elevated as consolidation zone narrows

Over the next several sessions, Copper is most likely to consolidate in the $6.1307 to $6.3843 range, in line with typical volatility around current levels. The likelihood of an upside breakout above $6.33 is rated very low at present, while a breach below $6.1307 carries a high probability of leading to further downside. The baseline scenario foresees stabilization within the current trading corridor, but a close above resistance could trigger upward momentum and a drop below support would likely intensify selling.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees ongoing pressure on Copper as fundamentals and technicals both signal caution. He notes tight physical market conditions in China, yet the price remains capped below key resistance. Technicals confirm a negative intraday bias and limited upside prospects. "Until $6.33 is reclaimed on strong volume, I remain defensive and see further downside risk if $6.1307 breaks."

Earlier, analysts noted that copper remained under pressure from technical resistance, with downside risks heightened by fragile support despite ongoing demand from the tech sector. The current update adds that intensifying supply constraints in China are reinforcing near-term volatility, making the $6.33 resistance and $6.1307 support critical levels to monitor for potential breakout or breakdown scenarios.

Source of Data: HG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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