US rate outlook puts copper under pressure with higher costs for non-dollar buyers

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Copper down on US policy fears and slowing AI demand

Highlights

Copper prices fell to a four-month low as traders responded to concerns about weak demand and possible US rate hikes.
Reduced consumption from technology and AI sectors contributed to softness in copper's industrial usage and ongoing price declines.
Technically, copper trades below key short-term averages with resistance near $6.24, as momentum signals favor continued downside until a clear reversal emerges.

Copper demand and US policy fears pressure price action

According to Mining, on November 12, 2026, copper prices reached their lowest level in four months as traders reacted to renewed concerns about weak demand, especially from the artificial intelligence sector, and the potential impact of higher US interest rates.

Anticipation of further US rate hikes could strengthen the dollar, which tends to make HG more costly for buyers using other currencies and limits overall consumption. Simultaneously, direct demand weakness from technology and AI sectors has translated into a decrease in copper's industrial use.

This risk-focused environment around both monetary policy expectations and sector-specific demand has contributed to ongoing downward momentum, even as traders look for stabilization triggers.

Downtrend persists as HG trades below 4H moving averages

On the 4-hour chart, HG remains below its 20-period and 50-period simple moving averages, pointing to persistent short-term selling pressure. The Ichimoku Kijun at $6.2494 acts as a resistance level, and MACD and ADX both currently signal continuation of selling momentum.

No bullish crossover or reversal is evident, with price consistently remaining under these reference levels. The broader technical bias aligns with the negative macro backdrop for now.

Macro policy and sector demand drive next copper move

Further US rate policy developments and any recovery in AI-driven copper demand will be key for any price stabilization. Monitoring resistance near $6.24 is critical—sustained trading below this area would extend the downward risk. A recovery above this mark could indicate early signs of a bottom.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees copper under sustained selling pressure as both US rate hike risks and sector-specific demand weakness drive momentum. He notes that key resistance at $6.24 remains unbroken, while technical signals continue to support the downside. Until there is evidence of a rebound in AI-related demand or a shift in monetary policy, the negative bias holds. "As long as copper trades below $6.24 and macro risks persist, I remain defensive and see no reason to trust the upside yet."

Previously it was reported that Chile is considering expanding private sector involvement in Codelco's mining assets and infrastructure as part of a broader policy review. The current focus on weak demand from technology sectors and US monetary policy uncertainty adds a new dimension to the copper outlook, with upcoming US rate decisions remaining the primary catalyst for potential price stabilization.

Source of Data: HG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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