Copper price prediction: Flat trend expected as sideways trading persists near key support

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Copper drops 0.42% to $6.297 today

Highlights

Copper futures spiked 3.2% in a single session, leading to higher monthly settlement prices averaging $6.40 per pound.
Copper miners saw increased gross profit as elevated physical pricing fed through to corporate financials in June.
Technicals indicate short-term bullishness with copper trading above near-term averages, but neutral momentum signals and overbought readings suggest a likely range of $6.2381 to $6.3559 in the coming sessions.

Profit gains for miners as active trading lifts demand

A recent spike in copper futures, with HG/USD closing 3.2% higher in a single session, points to notable trading activity and a temporary boost in demand, according to 247wallst. This active trade period contributed to higher monthly average settlement prices on the London Metal Exchange, with copper averaging $6.40 per pound, as reported by Prnewswire. The resulting increase in copper miners' gross profit highlights the effect of elevated physical pricing on corporate financials. Together, these developments underscore a recent phase of robust market participation, even as the current price has moved little intraday.

Neutral technical signals as overbought momentum signals correction risk

On the technical front, HG is trading above the MA-20 at $6.2855 while staying below the MA-50 at $6.3194 and MA-200 at $6.3514. The Ichimoku Kijun at $6.295 now acts as immediate support. Both MACD and ADX are neutral, with RSI and CCI also holding neutral readings, but Stoch RSI has entered the overbought zone, suggesting a risk of short-term correction. Bull/Bear Power stands modestly positive at 0.022, and the Awesome Oscillator remains neutral, indicating overall indecisiveness amid mild intraday buyer dominance.

Sideways bias expected as upside edge faces volatility band

Looking ahead to the next 2–3 sessions, the projected trading range for copper is between $6.2381 and $6.3559, reflecting a typical volatility band relative to current levels. The chance of an upward move stands at 56%, slightly favoring continued gains over further declines, which are less probable at 44%. The baseline scenario is for HG to continue trading sideways near recent levels, while a break above resistance could open a move toward the upper end of the band. Conversely, any decisive drop below immediate support near the Ichimoku Kijun may see renewed downside pressure take over.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees copper caught in a sideways range despite recent market activity. He notes that higher LME prices and increased miners’ profits have not translated into strong price action, with HG still capped below key moving averages. Technical indicators remain mixed and market sentiment looks indecisive. "Until copper breaks $6.3194 or loses immediate support, my stance is neutral and short-term trades should stay defensive."

Previously it was reported that Mitsui Kinzoku plans to significantly expand its copper foil production capacity in Malaysia to support demand from the AI and semiconductor sectors. In light of recent heightened trading activity and elevated monthly averages in global copper markets, traders should closely monitor any material shifts in the supply chain, as these could prompt renewed volatility or a breakout beyond the established trading range.

Source of Data: HG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.