Japan seafood sector faces salmon roe price surge as wild catches collapse

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Japan salmon roe price surge

Highlights

Wild pink and chum salmon harvests in Russia are down 60 percent and Alaska's catches are over 20 percent below forecasts, causing a global supply shock.
A 250g packet of salmon roe at Toyosu Ichiba Dot Com is expected to double in price to between ¥16,000 and ¥20,000, up tenfold from a decade ago.
Japan's $22 billion seafood industry faces menu disruptions as restaurants consider dropping ikura amid soaring prices and intensified supply competition from overseas buyers.

Supply shock builds across key salmon regions

As reported by Financial Times, traders and buyers say wild pink and chum salmon harvests in Russia are down 60 per cent this year, while catches in Alaska, the other major production hub, are running more than a fifth below pre-season forecasts. With the reduced hauls set to land this month, industry participants warn that roe prices are set to soar and could force many food operators to drop the product.

Masahide Kaeriyama, professor emeritus at Hokkaido University, says the decline in Russia has accelerated at an unprecedented pace over the past two years. Experts add that wild salmon returning to their natal rivers to spawn provide a useful proxy for commercial roe volumes, because farmed salmon are mainly raised for meat and usually produce little roe for consumption.

Olga Maznikova, a director at VNIRO, Russia's state-funded fishing research institute, links the weaker wild salmon catch to the El Niño weather phenomenon. Researchers and industry veterans also point to broader warming sea temperatures, northward migration of salmon stocks and expanding territory for predatory tuna, while some Alaska fishing veterans say overfishing has also contributed to a long-term decline.

Japan's own salmon catch reflects the longer trend. Hokkaido's harvest has fallen by more than 90 per cent to 17,000 tonnes over 20 years, underlining the pressure on a product that remains a staple at sushi restaurants and pubs across the country.

Restaurants and suppliers brace for menu changes

Salmon roe, known as ikura in Japan, is widely used in sushi, rice bowls and rice balls, making the supply crunch a direct threat to the country's $22 billion seafood industry. Masaki Yao of online seafood retailer Toyosu Ichiba Dot Com says a 250g packet of salmon roe at the company is expected to double in price to between ¥16,000 and ¥20,000, from ¥2,000 a decade ago.

That rise is already changing purchasing decisions. Yao says the market has reached a point where it is unclear whether customers will keep buying the product, and he expects it to quietly disappear from some sushi set-course menus.

Lower-cost conveyor-belt sushi operators are substituting trout roe, which is smaller and considered less flavorful than salmon roe. But that alternative is also becoming more expensive, and Tokuharu Hirayama, manager of Tokyo pub Nemuro Shokudo, says he will discontinue its ikura rice bowl if prices rise by half to ¥15,000 per kilogramme this month.

Some businesses are resisting ingredient changes and instead weighing whether to withdraw popular items altogether. Yumiko Ukon, owner of the 66-year-old Onigiri Bongo shop in Tokyo, is considering removing salmon roe rice balls that bring in customers and generate ¥80,000 a day in sales, while arguing that the global popularity of sushi has worsened the supply squeeze.

Competition for supply is also intensifying outside Japan. In New York, Yama Seafood president Nobu Yamanashi says high-end Japanese restaurants in the U.S. are increasingly placing orders as clients that usually source ikura elsewhere look for alternative supply.

Aquaculture may offer some relief over time. Okamura Foods says it plans to raise fish egg output by focusing on trout breeds that produce large volumes of roe at its farm in northern Europe.

As highlighted earlier, India sugar prices climbed as El Niño-driven drought cut cane output and squeezed food businesses.

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