ConocoPhillips unveils early oil production at Surmont 104W-A while stock remains under pressure

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ConocoPhillips slides 1.77% today

Highlights

ConocoPhillips trades below key moving averages with persistent short- and medium-term bearish momentum confirmed by negative indicators.
The stock is expected to move sideways in the $114–$118 range next week, with a very high probability of stabilization or a technical bounce.
A decisive move above $119.33 may trigger a push to $121, while a drop below $114 could test support near $105, though downside risk appears limited.

Bearish short-term bias as prices stay below key moving averages

ConocoPhillips ($COP) is trading below key moving averages, with the current price of $116.79 under both the SMA-20 at $118.69 and the SMA-50 at $121.43, indicating persistent short- and medium-term bearish bias. The SMA-200 sits well below at $104.58, confirming intact long-term structural support, while the Ichimoku Kijun at $119.33 serves as immediate resistance. Near-term support is seen at the MA-100 ($116.86), with key support at the SMA-200 ($104.58). Immediate resistance levels are defined by the Ichimoku Kijun ($119.33) and SMA-50 ($121.43).

Selling momentum intensifies as intraday indicators confirm downside pressure

Momentum indicators on D1 are mostly negative. The MACD gives a strong sell signal, and ADX is neutral at a low reading, showing weak directional force. RSI, Stoch RSI, and CCI are all tilted toward the sell or oversold side, confirming bearish dominance. BBP also signals an oversold condition, reflecting clear seller momentum intraday. The Awesome Oscillator is neutral but does not contradict the prevailing downside trend. In today’s session, COP has dropped 1.77%, extending selling pressure. Over the past week, the stock has slipped $0.35 (0.3%) from a previous close of $117.14, currently near the lower end of this week’s $114.92–$120.02 range. Weekly volatility stands at 4.44% with a steady downward tone from the recent high, aligning with momentum weakness.

Stabilization favored over decline as weekly signals turn bullish

For the upcoming week, the expected range is $114.00 to $118.00, keeping price action above the 52-week low of $85.57 and beneath the $135.87 high. Based on weekly signals, there is a very high probability (more than 80%) of a bounce or stabilization, as RSI-W1, ADX-W1, MACD-W1, and MA-50-W1 all signal a bullish or strong buy bias. Conversely, a further decline is less likely. In the baseline scenario, COP fluctuates sideways between $114 and $118. Bullish case: a clear move above $119.33 (Ichimoku Kijun) would target the $121 zone. Bearish case: a breakdown below $114 would expose the long-term support near $105, though strong weekly momentum makes this less likely at present.

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Previously it was reported that ConocoPhillips faced prevailing downside risks, with technical signals pointing to continued bearish momentum in the short term. In light of ongoing developments, traders should focus on the emerging trend for confirmation of sustained weakness or signs of reversal.

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