Qualcomm shares technical analysis: Support pressure builds at $136.89

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Qualcomm drops 2.48% after Q3 update

Highlights

Qualcomm beat revenue expectations with $9.95 billion in Q3 2026, but non-GAAP EPS missed due to margin and cost headwinds.
Handset revenue fell 20% year-over-year, offset by gains in automotive, IoT, an AI platform acquisition, and shareholder returns.
QCOM trades below key moving averages with strong bearish momentum, targeting a $136.89–$158.63 range and high downside risk.

Earnings miss and handset revenue drop curb positive sentiment on growth moves

Qualcomm reported fiscal Q3 2026 revenue of $9.95 billion, surpassing consensus and highlighting ongoing demand across its portfolio, according to Finance Yahoo. However, non-GAAP earnings per share of $2.21 came in slightly below expectations, reflecting persistent margin and cost pressures, while a 20% year-over-year decline in handset revenue underscored softness in its primary business line. Growth in automotive and IoT segments, the completed Modular Inc. acquisition to advance the AI platform, and substantial capital returned to shareholders through buybacks and dividends provided some offsetting factors. The company also announced a price increase for its product lineup beginning September 1, 2026, in response to rising industry-wide costs, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Oversold signals emerge as multiple trend supports and resistances challenged

On the hourly chart, QCOM is trading below both the MA-20 at $156.41 and the MA-50 at $164.59, while the daily MA-200 stands at $169.07, indicating a lack of underlying trend support at multiple timeframes. The immediate resistance resides at the Ichimoku Kijun level of $158.24. Momentum remains firmly negative, as both MACD and ADX confirm the prevailing downside. RSI, Stoch RSI, and CCI are in oversold territory, indicating severe demand weakness and potential exhaustion, while Bull/Bear Power favors sellers intraday. The Awesome Oscillator is neutral and does not reinforce selling pressure. Volatility persists, with the stock closing near session lows and posting a notable gap.

Reversal odds diminish as defined range holds amid elevated downside risk

For the upcoming sessions, QCOM is expected to trade within the $136.89 to $158.63 range, with the probability of a meaningful upward reversal assessed as very low. Downside risk remains elevated, and a sustained move higher is unlikely unless resistance at $158.24 is cleared. The base case scenario anticipates sideways movement within the defined volatility band. A bullish break above $158.24 could signal a reversal attempt, while a bearish drop below $136.89 would open the door to further losses, aligning with the dominant negative momentum.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees Qualcomm’s fundamentals supported by strong revenues despite short-term margin challenges and a sharp decline in handset sales. He notes that segment diversification, active shareholder returns, and steps to address cost pressures provide a constructive outlook. Downside momentum and technical weakness persist, yet core demand and strategic moves like the Modular Inc. acquisition keep longer-term potential intact. Karapetjanc believes that while sentiment is soft now, a sustained rally could follow if resistance at $158.24 breaks. "If Qualcomm can stabilize above key resistance, improving fundamentals should eventually drive a shift in momentum."

Previously it was reported that analysts were cautious on Qualcomm due to persistent bearish momentum despite long-term growth catalysts from acquisitions and partnerships. The latest results reinforce the negative outlook, with ongoing weakness in core handset revenues and sustained downside risk, making the $136.89 support level critical for traders to monitor in the sessions ahead.

Source of Data: QCOM Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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