UK data centre expansion drives potential rise in gas power use

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Highlights

National Gas reports a surge in large UK data centre gas connection enquiries from 5 last year to 24 currently, driven by grid delays.
Aurora Energy Research forecasts Britain's gas-fired power output could rise by 40 terawatt-hours by 2035, a 44 per cent jump from 2023 levels if data centre growth continues.
The UK government proposes allowing strategically important data centres to use gas-fired power provisionally, while emissions will be managed nationally instead of being assessed individually.

Grid delays reshape power plans

As reported by Financial Times, developers behind large UK data centre projects are increasingly weighing gas connections because electricity grid capacity is unavailable for years in some locations. Quest Park Data Centre Campus in Bedfordshire, a proposed 720MW project backed by property developer David Kohler, cannot join the grid until 2034 but could connect earlier to nearby high-pressure gas pipelines, leading to plans for a gas-fired power station for its initial phase.

National Gas said the number of large data centre projects enquiring about gas connections has risen from five last year to 24 now. Even projects that secure grid access would still add to gas demand indirectly because they would draw power from Britain’s wider generation mix of renewables, nuclear and gas.

Aurora Energy Research estimates Britain’s gas-fired power output could increase by 40 terawatt-hours by 2035 if data centre growth accelerates, equal to 44 per cent of last year’s gas-fired output, unless renewables expand faster than current plans. Marten Ford of Aurora said that without broader action, greater data centre deployment could increase gas use and carbon emissions, although the consultancy assumes most proposed projects remain unbuilt.

Policy response and sector implications

Developers generally prefer to connect to the national electricity system, but heavy demand and bottlenecks in planning, regulation, cost and labour are slowing progress. Katie Berriman-Davies, head of energy and infrastructure policy at Tech UK, said many developers are focused on connection reform so policy changes can help them access the grid faster.

Some projects are examining lower-carbon alternatives such as wind, solar, fuel cells and small modular reactors, but consultants say gas remains the quicker route than securing permanent grid capacity. Alan Fotheringham of Jacobs said options including biomethane, carbon capture and hydrogen may be added over time at projects such as Quest Park, while planning documents show the 3 billion pound SDC M40 Campus in Buckinghamshire and a proposed Cardiff site are also considering gas-fired generation before grid links become available.

The government last week proposed allowing strategically important data centres to use gas-fired power if developers plan to switch to the grid later, and said plant emissions would be managed at a national level rather than tested individually against climate targets. ClientEarth argued the approach creates a strong presumption in favour of building data centres without equally strong environmental limits.

Analysts say pressure on the power system will rise even if only a fraction of planned projects proceed. Advisers estimate just 10 per cent to 20 per cent of the 73GW of data centres in the grid queue will materialise, but Cornwall Insight said existing gas-fired stations would still need to run more depending on the scale of construction, while some in the sector point to Ireland’s rule requiring data centres to source 80 per cent of electricity from renewables as a possible model.

Our earlier article on the U.S. AI data center boom highlighted how ambitious buildouts are being undermined by delays, rising construction and financing costs, and tightening power availability. We also noted that only a minority of planned projects were viewed as credible, as investor confidence weakens and developers face growing pressure to secure reliable energy supplies to keep timelines and economics intact.

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