Global hotel groups extend market gains as travel demand stays firm

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Hotel groups extend market gains

Highlights

Marriott, Hyatt, and Hilton upgrade revenue forecasts as global hotel sector market value rises nearly $50 billion in 2024, with Marriott shares up 34% and Hilton up 31% year-to-date.
Booking Holdings delivers record quarterly gross bookings of $54.5 billion, up 10% year-on-year, while consumer travel spending outpaces other sectors despite inflation and geopolitical unrest.
Industry leaders warn that sustained Middle East conflicts and higher jet fuel prices may dampen fourth-quarter demand and raise fares into 2025.

Forecast upgrades lift hotel and booking stocks

As reported by Financial Times, the world's largest hotel groups have added almost $50 billion in market value this year as executives point to resilient leisure demand despite inflation, airline fare increases and disruption linked to the war in the Middle East.

Marriott, the largest hotel group globally, this week raises its full-year room revenue growth forecast to between 4.5% and 5%, its third increase this year. Chief executive Anthony Capuano describes leisure demand as the industry's "bright shining star", especially in Europe, while the company says both wealthier and lower-income travellers are spending more on trips.

Hyatt and Hilton also lift their 2026 outlooks last month, although both acknowledge weaker room demand in the Middle East. Hilton says revenue per available room is expected to grow between 4% and 4.5% this year, above its earlier 3% to 3.5% forecast, even as chief executive Christopher Nassetta says business in the region is "a little more beaten up than we thought."

Among the 10 largest listed specialist hotel groups, Marriott and Hilton lead the stock market gains, with their shares up 34% and 31% respectively this year. Travel stocks also come through this week's AI-driven market sell-off with limited damage.

Consumer travel spending outpaces other sectors

The strength in bookings persists even after flight cancellations, airspace closures and an oil price shock linked to the Iran war raise jet fuel and petrol costs. Hoteliers and travel operators say demand outside the directly affected region remains unexpectedly solid, with tourists more willing to switch destinations than cancel trips altogether.

Steve Witt, co-founder of UK travel agency Not Just Travel, says bookings, spending and trip frequency are all rising despite the broader uncertainty. Adam Sacks, president of Tourism Economics, says the industry is becoming structurally more resilient as travellers adapt plans around disruption.

Booking Holdings reports record gross bookings of $54.5 billion for the three months to September, up 10% from the same period in 2025. Chief executive Glenn Fogel says the result, after guidance was cut when the Iran war broke out in February, shows how resilient travellers have been and suggests consumers are sacrificing other purchases before abandoning travel.

That trend stands apart from pressure on other consumer businesses. Ikea reports retail sales down 2% to €43.8 billion in the year to the end of August, while recent sales declines at LVMH and Nike also point to weaker discretionary spending outside travel.

Card data underline the gap. Travel spending rises 8.9% year on year in September among Bank of America cardholders in the U.S., while Barclays says UK spending on hotels and lodging grows 2.7% in September, compared with 1% growth in retail spending.

Operators still warn that the sector faces further tests. Booking Holdings says fourth-quarter demand could be affected by continuing or worsening Middle East disruption and unrest in some European cities, especially in France, while International Airlines Group says higher jet fuel costs will push fares up next year.

Our earlier coverage of WTO warnings on trade disruptions explained how the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are reshaping global commerce, prompting companies to reroute shipping and redesign supply chains for resilience even at higher cost. The WTO projected a sharp 2024 hit to Middle East trade flows and noted that diversification and more regionalized trade could persist beyond the current conflicts as businesses try to protect against future shocks.

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