Toncoin: Strong Telegram integration fails to prevent 1.99% decline

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Toncoin drops 1.99% to $1.866 today

Highlights

Telegram reported a 65% year-over-year revenue increase to $870 million for the first half of 2025, boosted by Toncoin-related exclusivity deals.
Over $450 million in Toncoin was sold in H1 2025, underscoring the cryptocurrency's expanding role within Telegram's business model.
Telegram recorded a significant write-down in Toncoin's value following a major price decline in 2025, but continues to prioritize Toncoin in its ecosystem.

Toncoin integration deepens despite post-rally valuation setback

Telegram reported a 65% year-over-year increase in revenue to $870 million for the first half of 2025, driven in part by approximately $300 million in exclusivity deals related to Toncoin. The company also highlighted the sale of over $450 million in Toncoin during this period, demonstrating the cryptocurrency's growing integration into its business operations. Despite a substantial write-down in Toncoin's value after a notable price decline in 2025, Toncoin remains central to Telegram's ecosystem and financial structure.

Overbought oscillators limit further gains as technical momentum persists

Momentum for TON remains moderately positive, supported by the MACD and ADX which indicate ongoing buyer interest. The nearest dynamic support is the Ichimoku Kijun at $1.684, while MA-50 and the $1.900 round level act as the closest resistance. RSI, Commodity Channel Index, and Stochastic RSI are all in overbought territory, reflecting waning upside potential despite the underlying buyer momentum signaled by both Bull/Bear Power and the Awesome Oscillator. Today's trading range of $1.863–$1.899 and moderate volatility highlight some divergence between strong short-term signals and overbought oscillators.

Bearish correction risk rises if support fails amid overbought signals

Over the next five trading days, TON is expected to remain within a typical volatility band of $1.900 to $1.964, with less than a 20% probability of further price increases. The baseline scenario anticipates continued sideways movement near current levels, unless resistance above $1.900 is broken. However, given overbought conditions and flagging weekly momentum, a bearish scenario is more likely if support at the Ichimoku Kijun ($1.684) fails, which could lead to a deeper correction.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that Toncoin is showing short-term strength above key moving averages but faces resistance and overbought signals. He sees positive business developments around Toncoin within Telegram, but cautions that technical momentum is waning and volatility is moderate. A sideways or corrective move is more likely unless the $1.900 resistance breaks. "Given the overbought readings and fragile momentum, I remain defensive — base case is continued consolidation with risk of a deeper pullback if support at $1.684 fails."

Previously it was reported that Toncoin exhibited a 3.92% gain amid strong buyer momentum, though analysts cautioned about potential pullback risks. Technical indicators suggest continued positive sentiment, but monitor for resistance levels as overbought conditions could trigger near-term corrections.

Source of Data: TON Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.