Ondo drops 7.85% as sell signals persist and volatility spikes

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Ondo slides 7.85% today to $0.4295

Highlights

Ondo will unlock approximately 1.9 billion ONDO tokens, worth over $840 million, in January, increasing circulating supply by 57%.
This major token unlock event will substantially test market demand as a significant share of ONDO's released supply enters circulation.
Ondo is expanding real world asset tokenization and has strengthened its institutional presence, notably on the Solana blockchain.

High token unlock to strain supply as Solana expansion deepens

Ondo is preparing for a significant token unlock event, with approximately 1.9 billion ONDO tokens — worth over $840 million at current prices — scheduled to unlock in January, representing 57% of its released supply. This will substantially increase circulating supply and test market demand. The project is also expanding its real world asset tokenization activities and has strengthened its institutional footprint, particularly on the Solana blockchain.

Intraday selloff and mixed signals highlight volatility and divergence

Momentum indicators are mixed: daily ADX signals active but bearish pressure, while the MACD remains neutral, hinting at indecision. Both the RSI (59.39) and Bull/Bear Power point to recent buyer activity, yet the Stochastic RSI and CCI are firmly in overbought territory, flagging caution. The daily drop of 7.85% occurred without a price gap, and the current quote sits near today’s low in a tight range, suggesting high intraday volatility and selling pressure soon after the open. Oscillator and momentum signals are diverging, as intraday weakness contradicts the broader daily buyer push.

Sideways movement favored as weekly signals indicate further risk

Looking ahead, the expected price corridor for the next week is $0.4277 – $0.4365, a typical volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of further upside remains very low (less than 20%), making further declines more likely given persistent weekly sell signals from the Moving Average, MACD, ADX, and RSI. In the baseline scenario, ONDO is likely to fluctuate sideways between support at $0.4174 and resistance near $0.4475. A bullish break above resistance may prompt short-term buying, while a move below support would signal risk of additional losses.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees ONDO facing a challenging technical setup. He notes that short-term bullish attempts are weakened by steady medium- and long-term pressure, and the upcoming token unlock is a clear supply risk. Oscillators are sending mixed signals, while seller momentum dominates the intraday tape. "I remain cautious on ONDO in this environment — unless $0.4475 is reclaimed, I see little reason to trust any upside."

Previously it was reported that ONDO is exhibiting short- and medium-term bullish momentum above its 20- and 50-day moving averages, but remains well below its 200-day average, indicating lingering pressure on the long-term trend. Momentum signals are mixed, with the RSI and other oscillators pointing to overbought conditions and short-term pullback risk, while the immediate support lies near $0.4490 and resistance is close to $0.47, setting the stage for sideways movement unless a breakout occurs.

Source of Data: ONDO Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.