Toncoin price prediction: Sideways trend ahead? TON holds above short-term averages

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Toncoin rises 0.08% as price nears $1.78

Highlights

Toncoin's active addresses surged by approximately 300% year-over-year, signaling strong adoption and a rapidly growing network user base.
The project, functioning as a layer-1 blockchain, continues to build on the foundation established via Telegram, supporting ongoing network expansion.
Transition to community governance has maintained robust activity, suggesting genuine user engagement and improved operational scalability for Toncoin.

Network adoption accelerates as active user growth strengthens

Toncoin has seen a substantial increase in active addresses, with year-over-year growth of around 300%, reflecting ongoing adoption and an expanding network user base. As a layer-1 blockchain, Toncoin continues to build on its foundation established via Telegram and has maintained robust activity since transitioning to community governance. These developments point to genuine user engagement and operational scalability for the project.

Mixed momentum signals amid tight support and resistance levels

The nearest dynamic support for TON sits around the Ichimoku Kijun level at $1.689, with resistance aligned with the MA-50 at $1.634 and the next psychological barrier near the $1.80 mark. Momentum indicators present a mixed picture: the daily MACD signals strong bullish momentum, ADX supports a buy bias, yet the Stochastic RSI is oversold and CCI remains neutral. The RSI is at 53.63, pointing to balanced conditions, while Bull/Bear Power gives a mild buy signal and the Awesome Oscillator is neutral, underlining steady buyer presence amid low intraday volatility.

Sideways trading risk dominates as upside remains limited

Over the next five trading days, the expected price range for TON is likely to stay within $1.68 to $1.83, reflecting a typical volatility band near current levels. The probability of a significant upward move is low (less than 20%), with a downside scenario more probable given the 'Sell' bias in major weekly indicators. The baseline view suggests continued sideways action as momentum and longer-term trend signals remain mixed. An upside break above $1.83 could challenge the $1.85 area, while a fall through $1.69 may quickly drive prices toward $1.68 or lower.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, notes that Toncoin maintains strong network growth and user demand, reflecting robust sentiment and real-world adoption. He sees positive momentum in the short to medium term, reinforced by active addresses and steady market structure. However, the analyst acknowledges that longer-term technical trends are still cautious and recommend watching key support zones. Karapetjanc believes Toncoin’s fundamentals offer resilience, and ongoing user expansion could limit downside risk. "As long as demand keeps rising and support near $1.69 holds, I remain optimistic for further development in Toncoin’s price and ecosystem."

Last time, analysts noted that Toncoin is trading above its short- and medium-term moving averages with mostly positive momentum signals, including bullish indications from the MACD and ADX, while remaining below its long-term average and facing resistance near $1.80. Near-term price action is expected to consolidate between $1.68 support and $1.95 resistance, with limited probability of a significant breakout unless key resistance levels are breached.

Source of Data: TON Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.