Ondo: Oversold conditions and bearish analysis drive further downside

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Ondo slides 7.20% to $0.3108 today

Highlights

Ondo Finance launched USDY, a yield-bearing token backed by short-term U.S. Treasuries and bank deposits, as the first permissionless treasury asset on the Sei Network.
Ondo Finance’s total value locked exceeded $2.5 billion by late January 2026, signaling significant institutional growth in real-world asset tokenization.
ONDO trades at $0.3108, well below MA-20 ($0.3607), MA-50 ($0.3888), and MA-200 ($0.7153), with persistent bearish momentum and a projected five-day range of $0.2950–$0.3460.

Tokenized treasury launch on Sei drives asset inflow and visibility

Ondo Finance has launched its yield-bearing token USDY on the Sei Network, introducing the first permissionless tokenized U.S. Treasury-based asset to that platform. USDY is backed by short-term U.S. Treasury bonds and bank deposits, providing Sei ecosystem participants exposure to yield-generating treasury assets. Ondo Finance’s total value locked surpassed $2.5 billion as of late January 2026, underscoring its growing presence in tokenized real-world assets.

Bearish momentum and volatility persist amid oversold signals

Momentum remains firmly bearish, confirmed by negative signals from both the MACD and the ADX. The Relative Strength Index and Stochastic RSI are approaching or in oversold territory, while the Commodity Channel Index also suggests an oversold market, but with sellers still dominant according to Bull/Bear Power. The Awesome Oscillator reinforces the downside signal, with ONDO declining sharply today after a minor gap down between yesterday’s close and today’s open. The price remains near the lower end of today’s range, reflecting persistent selling pressure and high intraday volatility, with short-term momentum aligning with the overall bearish structure.

Limited upside as bearish indicators constrain five-day outlook

For the next five trading days, the expected price range for ONDO is $0.2950 to $0.3460, reflecting a typical volatility band relative to current levels. There is a low probability (less than 20%) of an upward move, given the consistently bearish signals across daily and weekly indicators. In the base case, ONDO consolidates sideways within this corridor; an upside break above $0.3460 could target higher resistance but remains unlikely, while a move below $0.2950 would indicate further downside as seller momentum persists.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, notes that ONDO is under pressure technically, with momentum and sentiment still favoring sellers. He points out that despite sustained bearish trends, Ondo Finance’s launch of USDY on Sei and strong TVL reflect positive underlying fundamentals. The analyst sees current price action as a consolidation phase, with macro and adoption factors suggesting potential for a future shift. He remains constructive but stresses patience for a confirmed reversal. "If ONDO can hold above $0.2950 amid growing adoption, a new uptrend could emerge despite short-term volatility," Karapetjanc says.

Last time, analysts noted that ONDO is trading well below its key moving averages, with pronounced bearish momentum reinforced by negative MACD, weak RSI, and strong selling pressure. Technical signals indicate continued downside, lacking solid support and facing dynamic resistance at the Ichimoku Kijun, with consolidation likely barring a significant shift in sentiment.

Source of Data: ONDO Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.