Bitcoin price prediction based on MVRV: Indicator points to BTC undervaluation

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Bitcoin price prediction based on MVRV

Market buys Bitcoin at a discount

According to On-Chain Mind, Bitcoin’s MVRV has been above its current level for most of its history. If we look at all past daily readings of this indicator, they were higher than the current level in 83% of cases.

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But what is this indicator? MVRV compares the current BTC price with the estimated average price at which investors received their coins. It is similar to comparing the market price of an apartment with the price at which its owner once bought it.

For example, if an apartment was bought for $100,000 and the market is ready to pay $180,000 for it, the owner has a large profit cushion. If the market offers only $110,000, that cushion is much smaller. The logic is similar with Bitcoin: the higher MVRV is, the more investors in the market have large paper profits. The lower MVRV is, the less overheated the market is.

The current MVRV level shows that the market has already cooled significantly after the price decline. BTC is now trading near $59,500. If we assume that Bitcoin is undervalued by about 20%, a simple calculation gives a target near $71,400.

This does not mean that the price must quickly move to that level. But this gap helps estimate the possible scale of recovery: at the current price, even a 20% rebound would not look like an extreme move for Bitcoin.

Why low MVRV does not guarantee a bottom

MVRV is often viewed too simply: if the indicator is low, Bitcoin should rise. But CryptoQuant analyst Crazzyblock stresses that MVRV Z-Score does not work as a tool for identifying an exact bottom.

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Its role is different: it shows how far the market has moved away from normal valuation. When MVRV Z-Score is high, it usually means that the price has moved far above holders’ cost basis. In this situation, many investors already have profits, which means more people may want to lock them in.

When MVRV Z-Score falls, the market goes through a reset. Part of the speculative growth disappears, holders’ profits shrink, and the price moves closer to the levels where many investors bought BTC. Therefore, a low reading does not signal a confirmed reversal. It shows that buying risk is already lower than during periods of overheating.

This can be compared to a car that slowed down after sharp acceleration. It is no longer moving at top speed, but it still needs a new impulse to accelerate again.

For Bitcoin, that impulse should come from demand. If buyers begin to return to the market more actively and selling pressure weakens, the current zone could become a base for recovery. If demand remains weak, BTC may stay near current levels for some time, even with low MVRV.

What will happen to the Bitcoin price

The $59,000–$60,000 zone is now important for BTC. As long as the price stays near it, the market keeps a chance of recovery without another sharp decline.

The first target for buyers could be $65,000. This is the nearest zone where the market will show whether the upward move has continuation potential. If BTC manages to hold above it, the next target will be the $70,000–$71,400 area.

The $71,400 level is linked to the estimate that Bitcoin may be undervalued by 20% from its current price. This is not a firm forecast, but a reference point: Bitcoin could return there if buyers start entering the market more actively.

The negative scenario also remains. If BTC loses $59,000, recovery could be delayed. In that case, the market will likely look for support below current levels again.

That is why the current Bitcoin forecast is moderately cautious. On-chain data shows that BTC no longer looks expensive, but the path to $70,000 and above will open only if the current zone holds and demand returns.

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