From Jesus Christ to aliens: Polymarket's most absurd prediction markets

​Today, users can bet on Polymarket not only on elections or Bitcoin's price, but also on the Second Coming of Jesus Christ, alien abductions during a World Cup match, and whether a streamer will eat an insect on a live broadcast. These bizarre markets have attracted tens of millions of dollars in trading volume, highlighting just how far prediction markets have evolved.

Polymarket gained widespread attention during the 2024 U.S. presidential election for its election-related contracts. Today, however, the platform hosts markets centered on events that would have been difficult to imagine just a few years ago.

Many of these markets are more than internet jokes. Some generate tens of millions of dollars in volume, forcing Polymarket to write highly detailed resolution rules that can be even more absurd than the events themselves.

What happens before GTA VI?

One of the platform's most popular markets asks users to predict which event will occur before the release of GTA VI. The options include GPT-6, a new Rihanna album, Bitcoin reaching $1 million, China's invasion of Taiwan, and even the Second Coming of Jesus Christ.

The combined trading volume across all outcomes has already exceeded $23 million. The Second Coming market alone accounts for nearly $12 million.

Prediction market for GTA VI-related events. Source: Polymarket.

Interestingly, identical odds do not necessarily imply that users assign the same probability to each event. According to the market's rules, if neither the specified event nor the release of GTA VI occurs before the deadline, the contract resolves 50-50.

This is why the Second Coming can trade at odds similar to GPT-6 or a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

Betting on Trump's vocabulary

Another unusual contract allows users to wager on which words Donald Trump will say during a given week.

The list has included words such as "Nazi," "peanut," "ice cream," "Jesus," and "Salvador." Each outcome comes with its resolution criteria.

Notably, Polymarket only considers spoken statements made by the U.S. president. Social media posts, written remarks, and AI-generated videos are excluded from consideration.

These markets illustrate another defining feature of prediction markets: users are willing to analyze not only political decisions but also the public behavior of well-known figures searching for profitable opportunities.

An adult toy on a basketball court

Perhaps one of the most controversial markets on Polymarket asked whether a sex toy would be thrown onto the court during a Women's National Basketball Association (WNBA) game.

Under the contract's rules, the market would only resolve "Yes" if the object was specifically a dildo. Other types of adult toys would not qualify.

Prediction market related to an adult toy at a sporting event. Source: Polymarket.

The contract also sparked a more serious discussion about so-called self-fulfilling prophecies. In theory, a participant could purchase shares betting on "Yes," buy a ticket to the game, and personally create the outcome needed to profit.

One of the platform's strangest markets unexpectedly raised an important question: can prediction markets merely reflect probabilities, or do they sometimes create incentives for events to occur?

Will a streamer eat an insect live?

Some contracts have little to do with politics, sports, or popular culture and instead focus entirely on internet personalities.

In July 2026, users were invited to predict whether streamer ArrowCS would eat an insect during a live broadcast before the end of the year.

The market's resolution criteria are surprisingly detailed. A "Yes" outcome requires the streamer to place an identifiable body part of an insect or other arthropod into his mouth during a live stream.

Insect protein powder, processed foods containing insect ingredients, or pre-recorded videos do not count.

While this particular market has not generated millions in trading volume, it demonstrates one of Polymarket's defining characteristics: virtually any event can become a prediction market if it captures the internet's attention and can be formally defined.

Will aliens abduct someone during a World Cup match?

During the 2026 FIFA World Cup, Polymarket users were able to bet on whether aliens would abduct a human during the Brazil versus Scotland match in Miami.

The contract generated more than $4.3 million in trading volume. The largest confirmed wager on "No" was worth approximately $600,000.

According to the market's rules, the contract would resolve "Yes" if aliens abducted a player, fan, referee, stadium employee, or any other individual present at the venue during the match.

Most participants viewed the contract as an opportunity to profit from an overwhelmingly likely outcome. Nevertheless, the fact that millions of dollars flowed into such a market speaks volumes about users' appetite for unconventional prediction contracts.

Millions of dollars on the Second Coming

The most absurd — and largest — market in this list remains the contract asking whether Jesus Christ will return before Dec. 31, 2026.

As of July 2026, the market's total trading volume exceeded $64.8 million, surpassing most other unconventional contracts on the platform combined.

Prediction market for the Second Coming of Jesus Christ. Source: Polymarket.

The question is simple: will Jesus Christ return before the end of 2026? A positive outcome must be confirmed by a "consensus of credible sources."

The rules provide no further explanation of what exactly constitutes the Second Coming.

Despite the extraordinary nature of the scenario, the largest confirmed wager on "No" exceeds $102,000, while several other users have committed tens of thousands of dollars to the same outcome.

When absurdity becomes a multimillion-dollar market

Most of these contracts are not genuine attempts to predict the future in the traditional sense. Instead, they reflect the topics currently dominating online discussions and capturing public attention.

Polymarket has effectively become a platform capable of monetizing virtually any news event or internet trend. If an event is widely discussed online and can be formalized in a few sentences, it has the potential to become a multimillion-dollar prediction market.

Judging by the existence of contracts on the Second Coming of Jesus Christ and alien abductions during a World Cup match, the limits of absurdity in prediction markets remain far from being reached.