Bitcoin price prediction: Further downside risk looms as BTC gains 2.64%

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Bitcoin gains 2.64% today to $71k

Highlights

Bitcoin is trading at $71,049.06, significantly below its MA-20 ($81,267.00), MA-50 ($87,021.27), and MA-200 ($102,311.03), confirming dominant seller pressure.
Momentum indicators including MACD, ADX, and oscillators indicate persistent bearish strength, with the market approaching but not entering oversold conditions.
Key technical boundaries are $70,000–$74,000, with the Ichimoku Kijun resistance at $78,962.25 and a bearish scenario likely if price breaks below $70,000.

Bearish momentum prevails as resistance overtakes support at current range

The nearest dynamic resistance is set by the Ichimoku Kijun at $78,962.25, with little visible support from major moving averages at current levels. Momentum remains negative, as both MACD and ADX signal ongoing bearish strength. RSI, Commodity Channel Index, and Stochastic RSI are close to oversold territory but do not yet indicate a reversal, while Bull/Bear Power confirms seller dominance. Bitcoin opened higher relative to the previous close, trading near today's upper range, and oscillators suggest a divergence with daily gains not supported by a confirmed trend change.

Limited upside as range-bound trading and downside risk dominate outlook

Over the next five sessions, BTC is likely to fluctuate within a typical volatility band of $70,000 to $74,000. The probability of further gains is low (less than 20%), so downside moves are more likely in the short term. Unless momentum improves and BTC breaks above the Ichimoku Kijun and the $74,000 resistance, continued sideways action between $70,000 and $74,000 is expected. A drop below $70,000 would expose BTC to additional downside risk if selling pressure accelerates.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, believes current Bitcoin price action reflects subdued sentiment and a lack of fresh macro catalysts. He sees robust selling pressure, yet finds that oversold conditions and broader institutional interest could limit deep declines. The analyst anticipates a sideways consolidation near support, noting the upside is capped without a momentum shift. "If Bitcoin remains above $70,000, the risk/reward for bulls gradually improves as macro fundamentals stay supportive," he says.

Previously it was reported that Block Inc. shares rose 5% amid announcement of significant layoffs targeting up to 10% of the workforce as part of a restructuring, following profit growth driven by Cash App but slowing bitcoin revenue. The stock remains in focus ahead of quarterly earnings, with analysts watching for improved efficiency from the reorganization and integration efforts, while support may be forming around ongoing product expansions and recent S&P 500 inclusion.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.