Solana price prediction: Further downside likely as SOL struggles below key moving averages

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Solana slides 1.27% today to $86.22

Highlights

Solana spot ETPs have reached $674 million in assets, while Forward Industries (FWDI) now sits on nearly $1 billion in unrealized losses but maintains its Solana treasury strategy.
Class action lawsuits target Pump.fun, Solana Labs, and the Solana Foundation, amid Solana maintaining $7.2 billion total value locked and leading daily DEX volumes versus Ethereum.
SOL is trading at $86.22, well below major moving averages with strong bearish momentum, oversold indicators, and downside risk to $82.00 dominating the technical outlook.

Institutional strain and legal risks emerge as ecosystem activity remains strong

Solana spot exchange-traded products have accumulated $674 million in assets, with the REX-Osprey SOL + Staking ETF experiencing nearly 1% outflows amid ongoing volatility. Forward Industries (FWDI), the largest publicly traded holder of Solana, now faces close to $1 billion in unrealized losses but continues to support its Solana treasury strategy. Class action lawsuits have been filed against Pump.fun, a meme coin platform built on Solana, with Solana Labs and the Solana Foundation added as defendants. The blockchain continues to lead in ecosystem activity, with $7.2 billion in total value locked and daily decentralized exchange trading volumes surpassing those of Ethereum.

Bearish momentum prevails as oversold oscillators reinforce weakness

Momentum signals remain negative for SOL, with MACD and ADX indicating ongoing sell conditions and a clear bearish trend. Key momentum oscillators show oversold levels — the RSI is at 29.37, the Stochastic RSI is neutral at 38.77 but oversold on many intraday timeframes, and the CCI stands at -102.61. Bull/Bear Power is deep in oversold territory at -10.69, while the Awesome Oscillator also supports the bearish view. Price action is near the session's low ($85.93–$87.87), and while intraday volatility is moderate, the lack of recovery attempts keeps the short-term outlook defensive and weak.

Limited upside as volatility band widens and bearish bias dominates

SOL is expected to trade in a $82.00 to $90.00 volatility band relative to current levels over the next five days. The probability of a price increase is very low (less than 20%), with technical signals suggesting a higher likelihood of further declines. Baseline scenario is sideways movement within this corridor; a bullish turn would require a break above resistance at $107.97, which is unlikely according to current technicals. A clear bearish scenario points to possible declines below $82.00 if selling intensifies.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, notes that Solana faces deep technical challenges, yet its ecosystem strength and institutional backing remain impressive. He believes that large inflows into spot ETPs and growing decentralized activity signal rising long-term confidence. Karapetjanc sees the current downturn as more a temporary sentiment shock than a fundamental breakdown. He points out that ongoing lawsuits and treasury losses haven’t shaken key players’ commitments. "SOL’s volatility presents tactical challenges now, but the resilient ecosystem positions it well for renewed upside once broader sentiment recovers."

Last time, analysts noted that Forward Industries' Solana holdings have declined significantly in value, with the current price trending well below the company's average acquisition cost and shares reflecting this downward momentum. Technical indicators such as moving averages and RSI/MACD signal continued weakness, with support seen near recent lows and resistance at former consolidation levels.

Source of Data: SOL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.