Bitcoin price prediction: Will oversold signals spark a bounce? BTC down 2.89%

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Bitcoin drops 2.89% to $67,439 today

Highlights

US spot Bitcoin ETF flows are back in focus: after outflows since mid-January, the funds posted two straight days of net inflows.
Ongoing ETF product expansion and steady mining-sector interest support Bitcoin’s fundamentals even as market swings persist.
Technically, Bitcoin trades well below major moving averages at $67,439, faces resistance at $77,935.74, and shows bearish momentum with oversold signals, targeting a probable price range of $65,000–$70,500 short-term.

Institutional flows rebound: spot bitcoin ETFs return to net inflows amid elevated volatility

Institutional participation in Bitcoin remains active, and spot Bitcoin ETF flows in the US are once again a key gauge of market sentiment. After a prolonged stretch of outflows that began in mid-January, the funds recorded two consecutive days of net inflows: $471.1 million on February 6 and $144.9 million on February 9. The biggest contribution came from BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which posted $231.6 million in a single day after a period of sharp redemptions. At the same time, market nerves persist: early February saw a sharp sell-off in BTC and related ETFs, so the latest inflows look more like a partial return of institutional demand after a stress test than a clear end to the volatility phase.

Bearish momentum intensifies as oversold signals coincide with support tests

Technically, Bitcoin faces persistent bearish momentum, with the MACD strongly negative at –7,402.94 and the ADX at 35.56 confirming the strength of the downtrend. Short-term support is seen near $67,368, with the nearest resistance set by the Ichimoku Kijun at $77,935.74. The asset is nearly oversold on the RSI at 31.68, with both Stochastic RSI and CCI registering oversold signals, while Bull/Bear Power remains in negative territory, reinforcing sellers’ dominance. Price action is concentrated near intraday lows, with no divergences among oscillators and sustained selling pressure since the session's open.

Lower trajectory likely as volatility constrains rebound prospects

Over the next five trading days, price action is expected within a volatility band of $65,000 to $70,500 in light of the current heightened volatility. The probability of a short-term rebound is low, with less than 20% likelihood for upside, making sideways-to-lower movement the baseline scenario. A bullish shift would require a decisive break above $70,500–$72,000 and strong momentum reversal, while a drop below $65,000 could trigger further selling and tests of deeper support if oversold indicators do not prompt a relief bounce.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, sees the current Bitcoin correction as a stress test driven by strong bearish momentum. He believes institutional demand and renewed ETF inflows provide a solid fundamental base, helping limit deeper downside. Macro and sentiment conditions still favor a medium-term recovery, yet a rebound will only materialize after clear signs of momentum reversal. "Despite price weakness, institutional accumulation and fresh product launches reinforce confidence in Bitcoin’s longer-term outlook," he says.

Previously it was reported that Bitcoin has diverged from its traditional role as a safe haven, now displaying increased correlation with high-growth software stocks amid intensified selling pressure and a roughly 50% decline from its recent peak. Technical indicators suggest renewed downside risks, with price action tracking below key moving averages and limited near-term support, while momentum metrics point to bearish sentiment as retail and institutional demand shifts toward equities and AI-related assets.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.