US Senate Binance inquiry — Bitcoin trades under pressure

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Bitcoin drops 0.22% to $67,685 today

Highlights

US-Iran nuclear talks and renewed Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict have heightened geopolitical risk, driving volatility and risk-off sentiment across Bitcoin and broader crypto markets.
A US Senate inquiry into Binance over $1.7 billion in transactions with sanctioned Iranian and Russian groups raises risk of stricter crypto regulations impacting Bitcoin liquidity.
Bitcoin trades at $67,685.29, below MA-20 and facing immediate resistance at $69,712.00, with technical signals suggesting further downside toward $64,500 possible.

Regulatory and geopolitical shocks fuel risk-off flows and Bitcoin volatility

On Thursday, the third round of US-Iran nuclear talks has heightened geopolitical risk, injecting volatility into Bitcoin as investors weigh the potential for further escalation or diplomatic breakthrough. The US Senate has initiated a formal inquiry into Binance for allegedly facilitating $1.7 billion in transactions involving sanctioned Iranian groups and Russian oil interests, raising the risk of stricter regulatory actions that could spill over to Bitcoin's liquidity and trading infrastructure. US President Trump's recent announcement of a new 15% global tariff, following the Supreme Court's strike-down of earlier tariff measures, has escalated trade tensions and pressured global risk assets, including Bitcoin, by fueling macroeconomic uncertainty. Meanwhile, renewed military conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan, compounded by warnings from global powers, has increased risk-off sentiment and contributed to price volatility across crypto markets.

Mixed momentum with bearish bias as oscillators diverge on buyer strength

Momentum signals remain mostly bearish, as the MACD indicates strong downside and the ADX signals a strong ongoing trend. The RSI is in a sell zone, while the Stochastic RSI and Bull/Bear Power are in overbought territory, implying recent buyer dominance and a potential for reversal. There is clear divergence as some oscillators point to overbought with episodic buyer strength, but overall momentum and daily direction stay negative. Bitcoin opened with a small gap down from the previous close and is currently trading in the middle of today's range ($66,885.01 — $68,216.79), amid moderate volatility and mild pressure following the open.

Limited rally prospects as downside risk dominates short-term outlook

Looking ahead, the expected range for the next 5 trading days is $64,500 — $70,000, adjusted to reflect price reality and typical weekly volatility. There is a very low probability (less than 20%) of a price increase, with further declines more likely. Baseline scenario sees price moving sideways between $64,500 and $70,000. A bullish scenario would require a strong push above the $69,712 immediate resistance, while a bearish move could see price slipping below $66,000 and testing lower support near $64,500.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees persistent downside risk for Bitcoin in both technical and fundamental contexts. He notes that the price remains below key moving averages, with sentiment hurt by geopolitical tensions and a tightening regulatory climate. Near-term momentum remains bearish and news-driven volatility threatens further weakness. "Base case remains sideways to lower as long as resistance at $69,712.00 holds — I remain defensive until we see strength above that level."

Previously it was reported that Bitcoin is trading below all major moving averages with bearish technical indicators, including a subdued RSI and a negative MACD. Momentum remains weak as resistance converges around $69,712, suggesting a short-term consolidation within the $61,000 to $72,000 range and limited probability of a sustained breakout.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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