Bitcoin price prediction: Bearish signals dominate? BTC falls below $68k

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Bitcoin drops 1.06% to $67,715 today

Highlights

A $323 million short squeeze in Bitcoin occurred on February 26, 2026, paired with $257.7 million net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs—the highest daily ETF inflows since early February.
Despite the recent inflows, total Bitcoin ETF assets under management have dropped 30.5% since January to $81.3 billion, while broad selling pressure persists.
Bitcoin is trading at $67,715.12, facing immediate resistance at $69,712.00, with medium- and long-term technicals (all major weekly indicators) signaling continued downside risk.

ETF inflow spike and short squeeze as broader selling prevails

On February 26, a $323 million short squeeze occurred in Bitcoin, accompanied by $257.7 million in net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs, the highest single-day ETF inflows since early February. Month-end Bitcoin options expiry on February 27 involved 116,000 contracts valued at $7.9 billion, with a maximum pain price at $75,000. Total Bitcoin ETF assets under management fell by 30.5% since January to $81.3 billion, as reported in recent data, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Bearish momentum confirmed as resistance converges and oscillators diverge

Technical indicators for BTC remain predominantly bearish. Price is below all major moving averages, with the MA-20 at $67,860.43 providing nearby resistance, and the stronger resistance marked by both the MA-50 ($79,247.15) and MA-200 ($97,913.27). The Ichimoku Kijun at $69,712.00 represents a critical threshold above current levels. Bearish momentum is confirmed by MACD and ADX on the daily timeframe. The RSI sits at 41.55, suggesting mild oversold tendencies on higher timeframes, while the Stochastic RSI is overbought at 92.69. Bull/Bear Power shows continued intraday buyer activity, though recent trading is defensive with moderate volatility and mixed oscillator signals.

Consolidation band holds amid low odds of bullish breakout

In the short term, BTC is likely to consolidate between support and resistance near current trading levels. The expected price range over the next five trading days is $61,000–$72,000, which reflects typical volatility relative to current levels. There is less than a 20% chance of a sustained price increase, as major weekly indicators remain on sell signals. Baseline expectations see price holding within this band, but a breakout above $69,712.00 could open momentum toward $72,000, while a drop below $66,000 could expose further downside risk toward the lower end of the range.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees persistent bearish pressure for Bitcoin as price remains under key moving averages and fails to reclaim major resistance levels. He notes that technical and sentiment signals point to defensive trading, with ETF outflows and options expiry highlighting caution. The expected trading range is tight, and Kharitonov believes there is little evidence of a sustained recovery. "As long as BTC trades below $69,712.00, I remain cautious and see downside risk outweighing any short-term upside potential."

Previously it was reported that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw their strongest net inflow in three weeks, indicating a potential stabilization in institutional sentiment after a period of outflows and muted confidence amid elevated volatility. Bitcoin and major altcoins rebounded with improving sentiment indicators, while technicals suggest support near recent lows, but analysts warn that a sustained trend reversal will require continued ETF inflows and confirmation from momentum signals such as RSI and MACD.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.