The euro advanced against the U.S. dollar after a softer-than-expected U.S. inflation report prompted investors to trim expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening. Lower Treasury yields reduced demand for the dollar, while market participants shifted their focus toward upcoming retail sales, producer inflation, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's latest comments for confirmation that price pressures continue to ease.
ECB remains cautious despite improving sentiment
Support for the single currency also comes from the European Central Bank, which continues to emphasize that inflation risks have not fully disappeared despite signs of a more balanced economic outlook. Minutes from the June policy meeting showed that policymakers remain concerned about the inflationary impact of energy markets and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, suggesting that restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for longer than previously expected.
Buyers challenge an important technical barrier
The chart shows EUR/USD pushing into the upper boundary of a multi-day consolidation range after rebounding from the 1.1390 area. Price is holding above its short and medium-term moving averages, reflecting improving near-term momentum, while repeated tests of resistance near 1.1470 indicate that buyers are attempting to establish a fresh leg higher. At the same time, the pair has not yet produced a decisive breakout, leaving the current move vulnerable to profit-taking if fresh catalysts fail to materialize. Only a decisive break above the current resistance is needed to improve the pair's near-term outlook.
Macro calendar could determine the next directional move
The near-term outlook now depends less on technical factors and more on incoming macroeconomic data. U.S. producer prices, retail sales, the Fed's Beige Book, and further remarks from Kevin Warsh are likely to shape expectations for the July FOMC meeting. As long as the dollar remains under pressure and EUR/USD stays above the middle of its recent trading range, the bias favors additional upside attempts. However, another rejection near resistance would reinforce the broader consolidation pattern that has dominated trading in recent sessions, as I warned in EUR/USD consolidates as softer U.S. inflation offsets cautious ECB outlook.
-
Afghanistan
-
Albania
-
Algeria
-
Angola
-
Argentina
-
Armenia
-
Australia
-
Austria
-
Azerbaijan
-
Bahamas
-
Bahrain
-
Bangladesh
-
Belarus
-
Belgium
-
Bolivia
-
Botswana
-
Brazil
-
Brunei
-
Bulgaria
-
Cambodia
-
Cameroon
-
Canada
-
Chile
-
China
-
Colombia
-
Congo
-
Costa Rica
-
Cote d'Ivoire
-
Croatia
-
Cuba
-
Cyprus
-
Czechia
-
DR Congo
-
Denmark
-
Dominican Republic
-
Ecuador
-
Egypt
-
El Salvador
-
Estonia
-
Eswatini
-
Ethiopia
-
Finland
-
France
-
Georgia
-
Germany
-
Ghana
-
Greece
-
Haiti
-
Hong Kong
-
Hungary
-
India
-
Indonesia
-
Iran, Islamic republic
-
Iraq
-
Ireland
-
Israel
-
Italy
-
Jamaica
-
Japan
-
Jordan
-
Kazakhstan
-
Kenya
-
Korea
-
Kuwait
-
Kyrgyzstan
-
Laos
-
Latvia
-
Lebanon
-
Lesotho
-
Libya
-
Lithuania
-
Luxembourg
-
Madagascar
-
Malaysia
-
Malta
-
Mauritius
-
Mexico
-
Moldova
-
Mongolia
-
Montenegro
-
Morocco
-
Mozambique
-
Myanmar
-
Namibia
-
Nepal
-
Netherlands
-
New Zealand
-
Nigeria
-
North Macedonia
-
Norway
-
Oman
-
Pakistan
-
Palestine
-
Panama
-
Papua New Guinea
-
Paraguay
-
Peru
-
Philippines
-
Poland
-
Portugal
-
Puerto Rico
-
Qatar
-
Reunion
-
Romania
-
Rwanda
-
Saudi Arabia
-
Serbia
-
Singapore
-
Slovakia
-
Slovenia
-
Somalia
-
South Africa
-
Spain
-
Sri Lanka
-
Sweden
-
Switzerland
-
Syria
-
Taiwan
-
Tajikistan
-
Tanzania
-
Thailand
-
Trinidad and Tobago
-
Tunisia
-
Turkey
-
UAE
-
Uganda
-
Ukraine
-
United Kingdom
-
United States
-
Uruguay
-
Uzbekistan
-
Venezuela
-
Vietnam
-
Yemen
-
Zambia
-
Zimbabwe
- Forex
- Crypto
