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Andy Constan, founder and strategist at Damped Spring Macro, observes that a 1 touch 100 strike call option is currently priced at 40%.
Constan suggests this market pricing reflects almost a coin flip probability that the 100 level will be touched in 2023.
Constan previously noted a 58 percent drop in ORCL shares following the company’s shift to building compute capacity, according to a recent report. In another observation, he stated that traders interpret the creation of task forces as signals for rate policy moves, as detailed in an earlier article. These remarks follow his ongoing commentary on market pricing and probabilities.