Macro Strategy and Fed Commentary by Andy Constan
Andy Constan: Leveraged ETF flows create day trading volatility
Andy Constan, founder and strategist at Damped Spring Macro, highlights the impact of overnight gaps on day trading. Constan states that when markets open higher, continuous demand from ...
Strategy share count issued 186 million shares and $15 billion preferred, Andy Constan notes
Andy Constan, founder / strategist at Damped Spring Macro, highlights that over the last 2.5 years, Strategy has more than doubled its share count, issuing 186 million shares and $15 billion of ...
Andy Constan: Equity, preferred, and convertible structure for $60 billion SPX 500 portfolio
Andy Constan, founder / strategist at Damped Spring Macro, poses a financial scenario involving a $60 billion investment in SPX 500 stocks funded by a combination of equity, preferred shares, and ...
Doubling risk from 15 vol to 30 vol needs 675bp outperformance, Andy Constan notes
Andy Constan, founder / strategist at Damped Spring Macro, discusses the relationship between portfolio risk and required returns. Constan explains that investors running at 15 vol risk only need ...
Andy Constan: Market now interprets task forces as signals for rate policy
Andy Constan, founder / strategist at Damped Spring Macro, observes a shift in how market participants interpret monetary policy signals. Constan notes that the establishment of task forces is ...
Legal risk for public statements on Twitter may rise, Andy Constan warns
Andy Constan, founder and strategist at Damped Spring Macro, raises concerns about the legal implications of company and officer statements made on Twitter. Constan suggests that if a certain ...
Andy Constan: Market for 6-12 month variance swaps on mega caps remains illiquid
Andy Constan, founder and strategist at Damped Spring Macro, raises questions about the current status of the market for 6-12 month variance swaps on mega cap single names. He remarks that these ...
Coin-flip trades lack true alpha generation, Andy Constan notes
Andy Constan, founder and strategist at Damped Spring Macro, highlighted the prevalence of coin-flip trading in macro markets lacking a clear edge. He distinguished between gamblers and ...
Andy Constan: Oracle may eventually need to raise more money
Andy Constan, founder / strategist at Damped Spring Macro, questions whether Oracle could be the next company to encounter financial pressures, hinting at the possibility of an earnings surprise ...
Three companies will match $250 billion raised in late 1990s, Andy Constan notes
Andy Constan, founder / strategist at Damped Spring Macro, compares past and future IPO activity. Constan highlights that from 1995 through 2000, 2,555 IPOs collectively raised roughly $250 ...
Andy Constan: Leveraged semiconductor ETFs saw $20 billion in closing sales and $7 billion in buys
Andy Constan, founder and strategist at Damped Spring Macro, highlights recent trading activity in leveraged semiconductor exchange-traded funds (ETFs). On Friday, these ETFs, including SOXS and ...
Strategy community considers selling calls to pay $1.7 billion dividend, Andy Constan notes
Andy Constan, founder / strategist at Damped Spring Macro, highlights two ideas circulating in the Strategy community for alternative ways to pay the $1.7 billion dividend. Constan mentions that ...
Andy Constan: Strategy debt tied to 843,000 BTC, bankruptcy risk if BTC below 7960
Andy Constan, founder / strategist at Damped Spring Macro, outlines that Strategy currently holds a total notional debt obligation of $6.7 billion and owns 843,000 BTC. Constan explains that ...
Long BTC and MSTR trades see sharp losses, Andy Constan notes
Andy Constan, founder and strategist at Damped Spring Macro, commented on the challenging performance of holding both BTC and MSTR during a market downturn. Constan further remarked that ...
Andy Constan: Goog equity raises overlook ongoing share issuances to employees
Andy Constan, founder / strategist at Damped Spring Macro, observes that discussions about the three equity raises by Goog miss a crucial dynamic. He points out that Goog has routinely distributed ...
BTC sale and repurchase timing raise wash sale issue, Andy Constan notes
Andy Constan, founder / strategist at Damped Spring Macro, examines Strategy's decision to sell some BTC. Constan initially viewed the sale as a strategic move to realize a taxable loss given the ...
Andy Constan: Update shows loss on SPX and NDX puts, gains in bonds
Andy Constan, founder and strategist at Damped Spring Macro, provides an update on current investment positions. Constan reports being "dead wrong" on SPX and NDX puts, noting that 4% of assets ...
Asset price rallies typically lead to lower savings rates, Andy Constan notes
Andy Constan, founder and strategist at Damped Spring Macro, observes that when asset prices rally, market-based financial conditions indexes tend to fall and savings rates often decline at the ...
Andy Constan: U.S. national debt grew 8.6 percent annually over 46 years
Andy Constan, founder and strategist at Damped Spring Macro, draws attention to the significant growth in U.S. national debt over the last 46 years. He points out that the debt has increased at ...
Options markets assign 88% chance to 10000 by 2030, Andy Constan notes
Andy Constan, founder and strategist at Damped Spring Macro, highlights that options markets are pricing a 56% probability of the index touching 8250 before year end and an 88% chance of reaching ...
Andy Constan: Key strategies for trading in a bubble regime
Andy Constan, founder and strategist at Damped Spring Macro, shares key principles for trading and investing during a bubble regime. Constan advises always owning beta, avoiding leverage, ...
