Macro Strategy and Fed Commentary by Andy Constan
Index puts and calls bought at 15–20 implied volatility have resulted in pain trades, Andy Constan notes
Index puts and calls have been purchased at 15–20 implied volatility for six months, which has resulted in pain trades, according to Andy Constan, founder and strategist at Damped Spring Macro. ...
Andy Constan: Possible options for AMZN issuance include equity, ATM, or $25 billion bond deal
Andy Constan, founder and strategist at Damped Spring Macro, raised the question of what type of issuance AMZN might pursue. He listed equity underwriting plus mandatory features, ATM equity, and ...
Warsh’s comment on interest rates prompts debate, Andy Constan notes
Andy Constan, founder and strategist of Damped Spring Macro, questioned Warsh’s comment that interest rates have rolled over. Constan also mentioned differing terms such as “mook,” ...
Andy Constan: $192 billion annual pace is 43% of total planned new issuance
A $192 billion annual pace represents 43% of the total planned new issuance, with offers described as sparse. Andy Constan, founder and strategist at Damped Spring Macro, shared this assessment ...
Credit creation and issuance have complex impacts on markets and economy, Andy Constan notes
Andy Constan, Andy Constan, states that the effects of credit creation and issuance on markets and the economy are complicated. He adds that his latest blog post presents a simple framework to ...
Andy Constan: Bonds have almost completed their move
Andy Constan, founder and strategist at Damped Spring Macro, described the current bond market as having almost made its move. Constan also referred to bonds as the "No Pain" trade and called them ...
Gold promotion called misleading for representing only a small part of Ray's wealth, Andy Constan argues
Andy Constan, founder and strategist at Damped Spring Macro, questioned the integrity of recent gold advocacy, expressing doubt that a small portion of Ray's wealth discussed online accurately ...
Andy Constan: ONDS stock falls 55 percent to new year-to-date low after unfavorable deal
ONDS shares have declined by 55 percent to a new year-to-date low following what Andy Constan, founder and strategist at Damped Spring Macro, described as a hugely unfavorable deal for the ...
Guidance does not suggest manipulation of long end will continue, Andy Constan notes
Andy Constan, founder and strategist at Damped Spring Macro, stated there is no obvious guidance from the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) that "The House" intends to further ...
Andy Constan: Criticism of 6 percent and futures CTD flip is unfounded
Andy Constan, Andy Constan of Damped Spring Macro, described recent negative commentary about 6 percent and the futures CTD flip as mostly unfounded. Constan stated that market participants, ...
Net long range between 48-56% for l/s equity funds is not meaningful, Andy Constan notes
Andy Constan, Andy Constan, argued that the difference between l/s equity funds being 48% or 56% net long throughout the year results in only a 1.2% return difference, which he describes as ...
Andy Constan: U.S. Treasurys strong but supply strategy questioned
Andy Constan, founder and strategist at Damped Spring Macro, questions why the U.S. Treasury is considering reducing sales of government bonds despite their relative outperformance versus other ...
Inflation challenge evolving with private and public sector as supply catalyst, Andy Constan notes
Andy Constan, founder / strategist at Damped Spring Macro, observes that over three years have passed since he laid out a framework for addressing inflation driven by wealth and dissaving ...
Andy Constan: Bond market outlook remains weak as interest rates dropped from 2016-2020
Andy Constan, founder / strategist at Damped Spring Macro, questions the value of using historical bond charts that reflect a period when interest rates fell by 170 basis points from 2016 to 2020. ...
AK capital growth loop ignores energy limits and capital timing, Andy Constan warns
Andy Constan, founder / strategist at Damped Spring Macro, highlights that the AK capital growth loop operates by design but fails to consider critical real-world limits. He points out that the ...
Andy Constan: Fiscal dominance debate draws in hard money advocates
Andy Constan, founder and strategist at Damped Spring Macro, questions whether those who believe the current environment represents a fiscal dominance regime are primarily individuals deeply ...
Activist treasury issuance policy adopted to lower long term rates, Andy Constan notes
Andy Constan, founder and strategist at Damped Spring Macro, highlights a recent shift toward an activist treasury issuance (ATI) policy to suppress long-term interest rates. Constan points out ...
Andy Constan: Term premiums currently elevated compared to past stock market lows
Andy Constan, founder / strategist at Damped Spring Macro, points out that single term premium models lack validity, while comprehensive models that incorporate various term premium elements offer ...
ZB implied volatility and skew increase as put spreads and call vega appeal, Andy Constan notes
Andy Constan, founder and strategist at Damped Spring Macro, observes that ZB implied volatility (IV) and skew have risen notably. Constan suggests that a strategy of selling put spreads and ...
Andy Constan: Treasury twist aims to control long-term rates by shifting to short-term bills
Andy Constan, founder / strategist at Damped Spring Macro, compares classic yield curve control (YCC) by central banks to recent strategies involving U.S. debt management. Constan describes a ...
AI investment and supportive fiscal conditions drive economic expansion, Andy Constan notes
Andy Constan, founder and strategist at Damped Spring Macro, observes that nominal GDP growth is currently robust, citing massive investment in artificial intelligence, easy monetary conditions, ...
