Democrats push ban on prediction market bets linked to war and death
U.S. Senator Adam Schiff has introduced legislation that would ban prediction market contracts linked to wars, terrorist attacks, assassinations and individual deaths. The proposal is titled the DEATH BETS Act.
The bill would prohibit exchanges registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) from listing such contracts, according to the senator’s office. The restriction would also apply to markets that directly or indirectly reference or closely correlate with the death of a specific person.
Clash with regulator stance
Schiff’s proposal effectively challenges the CFTC’s evolving approach to regulating event contracts, which allow traders to bet on future outcomes. Current CFTC Chair Mike Selig has signaled support for a more permissive stance toward prediction markets. Earlier, the agency withdrew a 2024 proposal that would have broadly banned political betting.Schiff argues that such markets could pose national security risks. In recent years, several U.S. states have also taken action against platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, claiming that some of their contracts may violate local gambling laws.
Why these markets are controversial
The senator warned that betting on war or death could encourage the use of insider or even classified information to profit from sensitive events. He also argued that such markets raise ethical and security concerns, as participants may effectively profit from tragedy or violence.For example, Polymarket previously closed a prediction market about a potential nuclear explosion following public criticism during tensions linked to the U.S. conflict with Iran.
A companion bill is expected to be introduced in the U.S. House of Representatives, which could increase the chances of the proposal advancing at the federal level.
Earlier we reported that Polymarket hosts bets on events that can appear unlikely, premature or ethically questionable — yet sometimes attract millions of dollars in wagers.
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