Solana price prediction: ETF interest fuels rally, but SOL faces resistance at $95

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Solana gains 4.57% today to $89.05

Highlights

The FTX bankruptcy estate moved approximately $17 million in SOL for creditor repayment, retaining $321 million, keeping large supply off the market.
Solana led blockchains in February stablecoin volume with 36% market share, boosted by new payment integrations and ecosystem expansion.
SOL trades in a volatile $80–$95 range with short-term upward momentum, but medium-term technicals remain bearish with risks tilted to the downside.

Institutional inflows and ecosystem growth drive Solana activity surge

Recent activity around Solana includes the FTX bankruptcy estate, through Alameda Research, unstaking approximately $17 million in SOL to facilitate creditor repayments, while the estate retains control of about $321 million in SOL and network staking activity remains strong. Solana led blockchain stablecoin volume with a 36% market share for February and saw increased on-chain activity through new payment infrastructure integrations and stablecoin ecosystem expansion. Spot Solana ETFs, launched in late 2025, have surpassed $1 billion in total assets, with holdings now making up about 1.6% of the circulating supply and net inflows of over $950 million, signaling robust institutional participation.

Short-term volatility contrasts with mixed and bearish momentum signals

Momentum indicators on D1 present mixed signals for SOL: the MACD highlights strong selling activity, while the ADX reflects a solid trend but in a downward direction. RSI on D1 sits just below neutral, and both Stoch RSI and CCI are neutral, indicating no clear bias toward overbought or oversold. The Bull/Bear Power (BBP) registers overbought, pointing to temporary buyer dominance intraday. The Awesome Oscillator is slightly positive, aligning with the recent short-term bullish move. Today's session opened with a minor upward gap, and SOL is trading near session highs with pronounced volatility and strength, though this near-term positivity diverges from broader, more neutral or bearish momentum signals.

Downside risk prevails amid consolidation within defined volatility range

Over the next five trading days, expect SOL to fluctuate in a volatility band between $80.00 and $95.00, which reflects typical price swings near current levels. The probability of a further rise is relatively low (less than 20%), as all weekly trend indicators, including RSI, ADX, MACD, and the MA-50, signal 'Sell'. The likely scenario is sideways consolidation bounded by these support and resistance levels. A bullish breakout would require a strong push above $95.00, while persistent selling could see prices break below $80.00, making a cautious near-term stance appropriate with risks tilted to the downside.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees Solana showing resilience amid strong fundamental flows and high network activity. He notes robust institutional participation, visible in ETF inflows and continued on-chain growth, but acknowledges that the broader technical setup still favors sellers. Despite this, Karapetjanc highlights that recent headlines and payment infrastructure adoption are fostering a positive underlying sentiment. While technical resistance remains, the analyst maintains a constructive short-term outlook. "Momentum is building beneath the surface, and I see potential for upside if Solana can reclaim $95.00 in the coming days."

Previously it was reported that Solana is exhibiting short-term rebound strength above immediate support, but remains under persistent medium- and long-term downside pressure as signaled by moving averages and weekly momentum indicators. Oscillator divergences and muted volatility reflect a narrow, sideways trading range, with downside risks prevailing unless key resistance levels are reclaimed.

Source of Data: SOL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.