Bitcoin price prediction: Sideways trading likely as BTC faces resistance below $72k

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Bitcoin gains 0.67% today to $71,489

Highlights

The 20 millionth Bitcoin was mined, leaving roughly 1 million BTC left for future block rewards.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $763–$767 million in net inflows over five days, led by iShares’ IBIT with $600 million.
BTC trades with short-term bullish momentum above key supports, but rangebound between $68,000 and $74,500 with higher downside risk for the next five days.

ETF inflows and supply milestones shape sentiment amid regulatory risk

On March 2026, the 20 millionth Bitcoin was mined, leaving approximately 1 million BTC remaining to be issued as future block rewards to miners. In recent days, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced net inflows totaling about $763–$767 million over five days, with the largest daily inflow reaching approximately $250.9 million and iShares’ IBIT making up around $600 million of this activity. The Federal Reserve initiated a 90-day comment period regarding proposed Basel capital changes that could impact how U.S. banks treat Bitcoin holdings. Meanwhile, Bitcoin market activity has coincided with ongoing geopolitical tensions in Iran.

Overbought signals temper rally as mixed momentum indicators emerge

BTC is trading above the MA-20 ($68,299.19) and the Ichimoku Kijun ($68,280.14), which both act as immediate support, but remains just below the MA-50 ($71,750.49). The MA-200 ($94,141.14) continues to serve as major long-term resistance. Intraday price action shows BTC near session highs amid moderate volatility with today’s range between $70,862.36 and $71,767.80. Momentum indicators are mixed: MACD is near neutral, ADX signals supportive trend strength, while the RSI (53.57) and CCI (91.90) are bullish. However, Stoch RSI (86.71) and Bull/Bear Power (BBP) indicate overbought conditions. The Awesome Oscillator is positive, aligning with the current upward movement, but the divergence among oscillators suggests caution as overbought readings begin to temper bullish momentum.

Pullback risk grows as volatility band suggests sideways outcome

BTC is expected to trade within a typical volatility band between $68,000 and $74,500 over the next five days. With less than a 20% probability of a further rise, a pullback is currently more likely, in line with the prevailing weekly bearish bias from long-term moving averages and momentum signals. The baseline scenario anticipates sideways trading between $68,000 and $74,000. A sustained move above $74,500 would open the path to higher resistance, while a decline below $68,000 could accelerate the correction toward lower weekly supports.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, Traders Union expert, sees constructive signals in Bitcoin’s strong positioning above key support levels and ongoing institutional inflows. He believes the current spot ETF demand and diminishing supply reinforce a bullish macro thesis, but notes mixed momentum and overbought readings suggest near-term caution. The analyst expects sideways or mildly corrective action unless $74,500 is broken to the upside. He remains confident in the medium-term outlook and sees structural adoption as a persistent tailwind. "While a short-term pullback is possible, the backdrop of robust demand and tightening supply means any dip could be a fresh opportunity for long-term investors."

Earlier, analysts noted that Bitcoin was in a consolidation phase, with price action shaped by macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. The latest influx into Bitcoin ETFs and the mining of the 20 millionth BTC add renewed focus to long-term supply dynamics, suggesting traders should closely monitor any sustained moves above or below the $68,000 to $74,500 range as potential signals for shift in trend direction.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.