Solana jumps as U.S. CLARITY Act faces delay in committee

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Solana jumps 5.71% to $93.38 today

Highlights

Delays and disputes over the U.S. CLARITY Act increase regulatory uncertainty for Solana, reducing odds of near-term legislative clarity.
U.S. banks' objections to stablecoin reward structures heighten compliance risks for Solana and may deter institutional investment.
SOL trades in a sideways range between $85.00 and $98.00, with mixed short-term momentum and low odds of a sustained upside breakout.

Regulatory delays and banking concerns increase legal risks for Solana

The outlook for the U.S. CLARITY Act has heightened regulatory uncertainty for Solana, as the legislation faces delays in committee amid disagreements over stablecoin incentives. Debate now centers on concerns from U.S. banks regarding the impact of stablecoin rewards on traditional deposits, with legislative passage odds having declined sharply since February. This ongoing uncertainty leaves Solana exposed to legal and compliance risks in the U.S. market, potentially limiting institutional participation until more definitive regulations are established.

Bullish intraday momentum clashes with overbought signals and MACD weakness

Momentum indicators for SOL present a mixed technical picture. The ADX at 26.90 signals a strengthening trend, while MACD D1 issues a 'Strong Sell'; the RSI at 56.79 is constructive but not overbought, with both Stoch RSI and CCI D1 now firmly in overbought territory. BBP and the Awesome Oscillator favor buyers, highlighting strong bullish intraday momentum. Today's session began with a minor gap up and SOL trades near its daily high of $94.27, indicating high volatility and persistent intraday strength—though divergence between oscillators, including overbought signals from CCI, Stoch RSI, and BBP, suggests caution, and MACD's weakness tempers optimism.

Downside risk dominates weekly outlook amid resistance and weak momentum

For the coming week, SOL is likely to fluctuate within a $85.00 to $98.00 volatility band relative to current levels. Probabilities favor a further decline, with less than a 20% chance of a sustained move higher given bearish readings from all major weekly indicators (RSI W1, ADX W1, MACD W1, and MA-50 W1). The base scenario remains a sideways movement between these support and resistance levels. If bullish momentum resumes, an attempt to break above $98.00 is possible, while a drop below $85.00 could trigger a retest of recent lows.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees Solana’s short-term momentum as constructive but warns of persistent regulatory uncertainty in the U.S. market. He notes that bullish intraday signals are somewhat countered by overbought indicators and weak weekly momentum. The analyst believes legal risks and restrained institutional flows remain key challenges. "If SOL can hold above $85.00 despite regulatory headwinds, a move toward $98.00 is possible, but I expect continued range trading until clarity emerges on the U.S. legislative front."

Earlier, analysts noted that Solana was showing short-term bullish momentum, but remained constrained by technical barriers and regulatory headwinds. The current analysis adds that heightened U.S. regulatory uncertainty—particularly around stablecoin legislation—amplifies legal risks for SOL, making a decisive breakout less likely until there is clearer policy direction.

Source of Data: SOL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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