Stellar slides as persistent downside pressure holds price below key moving averages: weekly outlook

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Stellar slips 7.38% this week

Highlights

XLM trades well below key moving averages, indicating sustained selling pressure across both medium- and long-term timeframes.
Technical indicators confirm a bearish trend, with negative momentum, dominance from sellers, and only weak evidence of a potential rebound.
The projected 7-day range is $0.142 to $0.161, with a strong bias toward further downside or range-bound trading.

Buyer appetite grows as support holds and sentiment turns mildly bullish this week

Stellar is showing early signs of recovery after its recent corrections, with the project retesting and holding support at the $0.143 level. Positive momentum is being reflected in derivatives funding rates moving toward positive territory, suggesting increased appetite from buyers. On-chain and derivatives indicators point to a neutral to mildly bullish sentiment among market participants, hinting at an improving outlook for the Stellar ecosystem.

Sellers maintain control this week amid bearish technical signals and low momentum

Weekly technicals for XLM remain bearish, with the price staying below all major W1 moving averages. The weekly RSI sits at 36.57, showing an oversold condition, while the Commodity Channel Index reads −101.16 and Stochastic RSI is neutral. The Ichimoku Kijun is positioned above the current price, reinforcing resistance at the MA-20 level, and the Bull/Bear Power indicator remains negative, indicating sellers maintain strong control. Key W1 support is found at $0.142, while immediate resistance lies near $0.161, with overall momentum and volatility (9.65%) favoring continued caution.

Sideways action with downside risk expected next week as bearish signals persist

Looking ahead to the next 7 days, XLM is likely to trade within a range of $0.142 to $0.161, with a clear downside bias based on current W1 indicators. The base case scenario is for sideways price action within this corridor. If bullish momentum strengthens, a break above $0.161 may open a path toward $0.164. Conversely, if bears remain in control, a dip below $0.142 is possible, as weekly signals continue to favor the sellers.

Jainam Mehta, market strategist, believes Stellar closed this week with persistent bearish pressure as XLM stayed below all major weekly moving averages and technicals show sellers remain in control. He notes that while some early signs of recovery emerged with support holding near $0.143 and derivatives sentiment improving, the weekly RSI and CCI suggest the asset remains oversold with a downside bias. Mehta sees the likely trading range for the coming week as $0.142 to $0.161, favoring sideways or mildly negative action unless a post-oversold bounce materializes. "Given the current setup, I will be watching for a potential contrarian rebound if support at $0.142 continues to hold, but at this stage, sellers still have the upper hand."

Earlier, analysts noted that Stellar was experiencing sustained bearish momentum, with technical indicators favoring further downside risks. The latest data suggest that while bearish trends remain dominant, rising derivatives activity introduces the possibility of a shift toward a neutral or mildly bullish outlook, making the $0.142 support a critical level to monitor in the days ahead.

Source of Data: XLM Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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