Monero shows mixed momentum with RSI in neutral-buy territory: weekly analysis

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Monero slips 0.04% over the week

Highlights

Monero consolidates near $378, with strong medium- and long-term uptrends supporting a bullish technical framework.
Key technical indicators show ongoing buying interest, but momentum divergence signals potential upside exhaustion following near overbought conditions.
For the next week, Monero is expected to trade between $348 and $410, with a 75% probability of continued upward movement if bullish momentum revives.

Investor rotation and profit-taking soften market activity this week

Monero saw steady user adoption among those prioritizing on-chain privacy and fungibility this week. Activity in the market was shaped by profit-taking and a shift in investor interest towards higher-beta assets. Trading volume and open interest moderated compared to earlier in the year.

Mixed technical signals as bullish momentum fails to lift price

On the weekly chart, XMR is consolidating just below its MA-20 ($383.32) but stays comfortably above its MA-50 ($356.59) and MA-200 ($216.39), highlighting ongoing medium- and long-term uptrend support. Weekly momentum is moderately positive: MACD and ADX both indicate persistent buying pressure, while RSI sits in neutral-buy territory. Stochastic RSI and CCI remain neutral, though Bull/Bear Power reflects recent overbought conditions, and the Awesome Oscillator points to bullish momentum. Weekly volatility is elevated at 8.41%, and price action closes the week at range lows with mixed technical signals, as strong momentum is not translating into price advances.

Bullish bias holds as consolidation persists above crucial support next week

For the next 7 days, XMR is expected to consolidate between $348 and $410, with a 75% probability of upward movement as indicated by strong weekly RSI, ADX, and MACD signals. The base scenario projects continued sideways action above $348, with MA-50 ($356) acting as a crucial support level. Should bullish momentum return, a breakout above $410 could open up further gains. However, if XMR closes below $348, the downward move may accelerate, making MA-50 the next key support to watch.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees Monero maintaining a robust outlook this week as it consolidates above medium- and long-term trend supports. He notes that despite subdued price movement, the strong adoption narrative and sustained buying momentum indicate latent strength in the market. Macro and sentiment factors, such as resilient user demand for privacy and rotation from speculative assets, support the constructive view. As long as XMR stands above $348, the bullish structure remains intact with opportunities for gains if momentum revives. "I believe Monero continues to offer strong potential in the coming week, and any breakout above $410 could quickly accelerate further upside," Karapetjanc says.

Earlier, analysts noted that Monero was consolidating within a defined range amid ongoing privacy-driven demand, with technicals signaling a mixed but resilient outlook. The latest market action reinforces that view, as continued consolidation and robust medium- to long-term support suggest traders should watch for a decisive move above $410 for confirmation of renewed upside momentum.

Source of Data: XMR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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